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* Why the current inflation shock may be one of the most significant in recent history
* How oil prices and geopolitical conflict are reshaping macro expectations
* The growing risk of a stagflationary environment and what it means for portfolios
* Why traditional 60/40 portfolios may struggle in sustained inflation regimes
* How expected returns differ across equities, bonds, commodities, and FX
* Why commodities and energy markets offer the most attractive opportunities today
* The role of backwardation and supply shocks in driving commodity returns
* Why consensus earnings expectations may be too optimistic relative to macro reality
* How inflation flows through the economy from energy to consumer demand
* The Fed’s dilemma between inflation control and economic slowdown
* A simple rule for when to own treasuries based on inflation trends
* Why correlations across asset classes are breaking down in crisis environments
* How systematic investors manage risk when markets are driven by news and geopolitics
* The case for trend following as a core portfolio strategy
* How Aahan’s free trend system works across stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin
* The behavioral advantages of systematic investing during volatile markets
* Risks of trend following including whipsaws and false signals
* How portfolio construction is evolving to include crisis protection and energy overlays
00:00 Inflation shock and why equities and bonds may struggle
01:03 Setting up the macro backdrop before the oil shock
03:12 Labor market slowdown vs strong GDP divergence
04:45 Consumer spending driven by de-saving
05:35 Oil-driven inflation shock as a recession catalyst
07:32 Preparing for stagflation vs disinflationary growth
09:18 Why commodities outperform in inflation regimes
10:45 Expected returns framework across asset classes
12:05 Why commodities and FX offer the best opportunities
14:05 How commodity carry and backwardation work
16:42 Trend following and commodities as pro-cyclical exposures
17:43 Ranking expected returns: energy, FX, bonds, equities
18:51 Challenges of systematic investing in news-driven markets
20:15 Extreme correlations and oil dominating asset pricing
23:47 Earnings expectations vs macro reality gap
28:30 Why the Fed faces an impossible policy tradeoff
30:00 Real-time CPI estimates and inflation pressure
32:00 A rule for when to own treasuries based on CPI
37:30 Stock-bond correlation regime shifts
39:34 How the trend following system works
45:10 Benefits and limitations of trend strategies