One of the Fastest Corrections in History: What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
The OPEX EffectMarch 15, 202501:06:04

One of the Fastest Corrections in History: What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

In the latest episiode of the OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba take a look behind the scenes of the big market selloff and the options flows driving it. They break down the massive options expiration coming up (the second-largest ever) and its potential impact on market movements.

Key topics covered:

Understanding the current high-volatility environment and why options volumes are driving increased market swings
Analysis of the JPMorgan collar trade at the crucial 5565 level and its market implications
Deep dive into the mysterious "Captain Condor" trader and their impact on market dynamics
Discussion of multiple major events ahead: VIX expiration, FOMC meeting, quarterly OPEX, and potential tariff deadline
Examination of fixed-strike volatility and why traditional VIX readings might be misleading in the current environment

0:00 Intro - Markets in Turmoil edition of The OPEX Effect
1:36 Why options flows matter in today's market environment
6:38 Understanding the current macro vs micro environment
10:15 Exploring the upcoming massive options expiration (second largest ever)
16:12 Deep dive into the JPMorgan collar trade and the critical 5565 level
22:34 The mysterious "Captain Condor" trader and their market impact
29:16 Why VIX readings might be misleading in the current environment
40:33 Analysis of fixed strike volatility vs VIX
53:12 Looking at put values and sector themes
58:36 Key upcoming events: VIX expiration, FOMC, and Quarterly OPEX
1:03:02 Final thoughts on market positioning and potential scenarios