The Big Beautiful Debt Delusion | The Real Risk Behind Tax Cuts and Deficits
Click BetaMay 29, 202501:07:26

The Big Beautiful Debt Delusion | The Real Risk Behind Tax Cuts and Deficits

In this episode of Click Beta, Dave Nadig, Matt Zeigler, and Jason Buck go deep on the messy realities of U.S. fiscal policy, the politics of taxation and spending, and what it really means to “get our fiscal house in order.” They dig into the latest tax bill, the implications for business owners and local economies, and the broader consequences for American hegemony and cost of capital. Along the way, they explore MMT, VATs, FX sentiment, AI's role in tax planning, and the surprising policy influence of farmers. It’s a candid, unscripted, and often hilarious look at the issues that actually matter.

Main Topics Covered:

Why the math of austerity doesn’t add up

What a “fiscal house in order” really looks like

The hidden consequences of the new tax bill

State vs. federal policy shifts

Labor, wage incentives, and restaurant economics

MMT, bond markets, and inflation dynamics

The underrated power of FX as a policy gauge

Private credit, pork spending, and political realities

Tax planning as the new alpha for advisors

Exchange funds, 351 ETFs, and solving concentrated wealth

The commoditization of portfolios and rise of tax-focused RIAs

Timestamps:

00:00 – Can the U.S. run deficits forever?
01:07 – Click Beta ground rules
04:00 – What does “fiscal house in order” mean?
06:56 – Tax bill analysis and lack of trade policy
10:00 – What happens when “the toy breaks”?
12:00 – State rights vs. federal overreach
14:00 – Local labor markets and wage challenges
17:00 – Restaurant economics vs. McDonald's efficiency
20:00 – Tipping culture and tax policy
22:00 – Work requirements and cutting social safety nets
26:00 – R&D cuts and longer-term implications
31:00 – U.S. global standing and reserve status
34:00 – Commodity trend following as dollar hedge
37:00 – FX as a policy sentiment gauge
40:00 – Global liabilities and international allocations
42:00 – Exchange funds and concentrated stock solutions
48:00 – 351 conversions and ETF mechanics
51:00 – Tax planning as the real alpha
53:00 – Airline exit rows and willing-but-unable passengers
54:00 – Surprise questions and closing thoughts
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