The Domino's Recession Indicator | The Risks Markets Are Missing
Click BetaMay 02, 202500:59:37

The Domino's Recession Indicator | The Risks Markets Are Missing

In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig, and Jason Buck dive into the complex state of the U.S. economy — from recession signals and tariffs to shifting consumer behavior and surprising cultural trends. With no Google allowed and a shared mission to cut through the noise, the crew brings their personal anecdotes, macro analysis, and economic skepticism to the table. If you’ve ever wondered how the people behind the scenes of financial media actually talk when the cameras are off, this is that conversation.

Topics Covered:

Why it “feels” like a recession — even if it’s not official

The bullwhip effect and what shipping data is telling us

Consumer slowdown: anecdotes, vibes, and Domino’s earnings

Why tariffs may create hidden entrepreneurial opportunities

Services vs goods recessions: which one hits harder?

Brand winners and losers: the surprising Chili’s comeback

Is Gen X the forgotten generation?

How generations might need to collaborate to move forward

Do we still care about art, or are we remixing ourselves into oblivion?

Timestamps:
00:00 – Calm Before the Storm: Setting the Scene
01:00 – Click Beta Ground Rules and Introductions
04:00 – Are We in a Recession or Just Vibe Checking?
08:30 – Bullwhip Effects and the Domino’s Data Point
12:00 – Tariffs, Consumption Shifts, and Board Game Economics
17:00 – Brand Battles: Chili’s vs the Field
21:00 – Are We Screwed? The Calm Before What Storm?
25:00 – Multiples, Flows, and Why the Market Might Shrug
29:00 – Policy Flip Points and Election Timing
34:00 – Reshoring, Opportunity Zones, and American Manufacturing
41:00 – Generational Vibes: Are Gen X and Millennials Screwed?
47:00 – Do We Still Care About Art? (Or Just Remix It?)