Main Topics Covered:
Market Irrationality & Geopolitical Events - Why bombing Iran led to markets going up instead of down, and the complete disconnect between headline risk and market behavior
The Death of Selling - How retail conditioning and systematic flows have created a market where nobody wants to sell, even during potential global conflicts
Energy as the Real Risk - Why oil price spikes worry the hosts more than stock market volatility, and what $250-300 oil could mean for the economy
Minsky Moments & Wile E. Coyote Markets - The hosts' framework for understanding when stability breeds instability and how long markets can run on thin air
International Markets Outperformance - The surprising reality that US markets are actually underperforming globally, and why Americans don't seem to care
AI and the Future of Cheating at Life - Discussion of Cluey's $16M raise to help people cheat at everything, and what this means for human authenticity
Gen X as Reluctant Elders - How the generation that never wanted responsibility might have to step up to fix local communities
The Mid-Tier Apocalypse - Why everything is becoming either luxury or garbage, with nothing affordable left in between
Behavioral Finance Reality Check - Whether studying cognitive biases actually helps when even Danny Kahneman admits he falls for them all
Timestamps:
[00:00:00] Cold open - Market irrationality discussion
[00:01:00] Show introduction and ground rules
[00:02:23] War topic introduction - what is it good for?
[00:02:46] Dave on bombing Iran and market response
[00:04:02] Jason on market paradoxes and buy-the-dip mentality
[00:06:00] Discussion of "taco trade" and Trump dynamics
[00:07:05] Minsky moment framework and stability breeding instability
[00:09:08] How can you have a bear market if nobody sells?
[00:12:00] V-shaped recoveries and lack of hard lessons learned
[00:14:44] Return to war discussion and terrorism risk
[00:17:19] Oil spike concerns and energy price impacts
[00:20:53] Policy response capabilities and energy inputs
[00:24:17] Portfolio construction in current environment
[00:26:00] International market outperformance vs US focus
[00:29:57] Value investors waiting for comeuppance
[00:30:48] Matt's behavioral finance skepticism topic
[00:33:00] Micro vs macro thinking differences
[00:37:29] Gen X elder discussion and local community building
[00:41:28] AI topic - Cluey and cheating at life
[00:46:00] Personal AI usage and ethics
[00:54:00] AI slop in business and authentic alternatives
[00:58:00] Real world events becoming more valuable
[01:01:54] $100M AI engineer signing bonuses
[01:07:00] Closing thoughts and recommendations
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