**Main Topics Covered:**
- **AI’s Right and Left Tails:** The hosts explore AI’s potential for transformative breakthroughs (like rewriting Social Security’s COBOL code) versus its risks, including trust erosion and overhyped promises.
- **Tariffs and Economic Policy:** They debate the optimistic case for tariffs reshaping U.S. manufacturing and tax policy (e.g., a VAT system) against the reality of roboticization and political chaos.
- **Geopolitical Tensions:** From the U.S. as a fading global bully to speculative left-tail events like Arctic shipping disputes or an accidental spark in Africa, they ponder the end of Pax Americana.
- **Community and Legacy:** The conversation shifts to pro-social thinking—how AI might free up time for community, contrasted with musings on legacy, ancestry, and whether it even matters.
- **Surprise Topics:**
- *Canadian Animosity Toward the U.S.:* Is Canada’s current patriotism a fleeting protest or a lasting shift?
- *Broadening Perspectives:* Matt seeks ways to inspire long-term, pro-social thinking in everyday life.
- *D.C. Real Estate and Political Scapegoats:* Jason speculates on buying the dip in D.C. housing and Elon Musk as Trump’s potential fall guy.
No investment advice here—just three market-weary friends riffing on the world as they see it. Like, subscribe, and share if you enjoyed the chaos!
0:00 - Intro and topic setup: exploring what could go wonderfully right and disastrously wrong
1:54 - Right tail potential of AI breakthroughs in the next 24 months
4:10 - Could AI rewrite Social Security's 10 million lines of COBOL code in 6 months?
7:12 - How AI could drive people back to in-person connections and "finding your tribe"
11:02 - Trust issues with AI and generative content
13:13 - The interesting timing of AI and blockchain technology coinciding
14:22 - Institutional decay and the shift to person-to-person trust relationships
15:37 - MAG Seven dominance vs international market rebalancing
17:05 - The bull argument sounds airtight at the top, the bear argument at the bottom
18:15 - Is this a bear market or just a reset of over-dominant US allocation?
22:45 - "A million flowers blooming" - how tariffs and reshoring could reshape business
25:15 - Will American manufacturing revival be mostly roboticized?
27:25 - The case for a coherent, consistent tariff policy
29:15 - Could failed tariffs lead to a VAT conversation in America?
35:45 - Left tail risks: What happens when nobody wants to hang out with the US anymore?
37:15 - Has weaponizing SWIFT permanently changed global trust?
41:22 - Jason: "I prepare, don't predict" - the difference between Grey Swans and Black Swans
43:15 - The next global conflict trigger probably won't come from where we expect
48:46 - From right/left tails to the group's surprise topics
49:10 - Will Canada's current animosity toward the US have staying power?
55:23 - Matt's question: What does it take to be a good ancestor?
57:02 - Dave: "Outcome orientation" - asking why you're doing what you're doing
58:15 - Jason: "Can you name your grandparents' middle names?" - the limits of legacy
1:03:15 - The genetics of generational knowledge and obligation
1:06:22 - If nothing matters, why not be a gentleman?
1:07:38 - Jason's final topic: DC real estate prices and Trump's potential "fall guy" strategy
1:13:46 - Outro
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