Main topics covered:
* Why combining fundamental, quantitative, and macro analysis gives a clearer view of markets
* The case for the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2030
* Structural reasons why market multiples may stay higher for longer
* The key bear cases: hyperscaler CapEx risk, fiscal deficits, and AI-driven unemployment
* Comparing today’s market to the dot-com era
* Why traditional recession indicators have failed
* How COVID changed the economic cycle and business synchronization
* Inflation, tariffs, and what the Fed is really watching
* Why valuation is a broken signal for stock picking
* The quant factors that matter most today
* ETF factor exposures and hidden risks
* How to think about the 60/40 portfolio, diversification, and private markets
* Why U.S. innovation and margins make it the dominant equity market
* Key lessons and philosophies for long-term investors
Timestamps:
00:00 What really drives equity investing
03:00 Adam Parker’s background and multi-lens approach
05:00 Why he’s long-term bullish and sees S&P 10,000
08:00 Structural margin expansion and AI productivity
09:00 The three major bear cases
14:00 How today compares to the 1990s tech bubble
18:00 Why the economy has stayed resilient
20:00 COVID’s impact on business cycles
23:00 Market structure, inventory, and margins
24:00 Inflation, tariffs, and Fed outlook
29:00 Deficits and why timing macro risks is hard
32:00 Large vs small cap dynamics
37:00 Why valuation doesn’t work
41:00 Key quant factors to watch
43:00 ETF grading and hidden exposures
46:00 The 60/40 portfolio and asset allocation
51:00 U.S. vs Europe and innovation advantage
55:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts