Big Decline. Big Rally. What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next | Katie Stockton
Excess ReturnsJune 02, 202500:54:59

Big Decline. Big Rally. What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next | Katie Stockton

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, for a deep dive into the current state of the market through the lens of technical analysis. Katie walks us through her outlook on U.S. and international equities, key sector rotations, and the signals her indicators are sending about what’s next. We also explore the strategy behind her tactical ETF (TACK) and how investors can use chart-based insights to manage risk and identify opportunities in a complex macro environment.

📌 Topics Covered:

The current technical setup: secular bull, cyclical bear

How to interpret gaps, indicators, and moving averages

Weakening market breadth and its implications

Sector rotation: what’s working and what’s not

The outlook for international vs. U.S. markets

Sentiment extremes and the "fear & greed" indicators

Technical setups in commodities: crude oil and gold

Thoughts on Bitcoin, the dollar, and bond spreads

How the TACK ETF applies technical signals in practice

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – Market setup: Secular bull, cyclical bear
03:00 – Monthly S&P 500 analysis
05:20 – Indicators overview: DeMark, MACD, Stochastics
09:45 – Daily S&P 500 chart and April low setup
14:40 – Advance-decline line and breadth concerns
17:45 – Mega-cap leadership vs. breadth
18:50 – Sentiment and CNN’s Fear & Greed Index
22:00 – Yield spreads and macro implications
25:55 – International vs. U.S. equity performance
27:50 – China/FXI outlook and technical structure
30:35 – Sector-level insights: What's turning around
33:00 – How sector rotation is implemented in TACK ETF
36:20 – RRG (Relative Rotation Graph) explained
39:00 – Utilities, real estate, and staples leadership
42:50 – Crude oil price action and technical downside risks
46:55 – Gold: consolidation within a secular uptrend
49:20 – Dollar weakness and breakdown signal
50:30 – Bitcoin’s false breakout and near-term risks
52:30 – Why technicals can stand alone in top-down investing
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