Breaking Down the Challenging Macro Landscape with Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal
Excess ReturnsNovember 09, 202301:00:36

Breaking Down the Challenging Macro Landscape with Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal

In this episode, we speak with 3Fourteen Research founders Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal. We discuss 3Fourteen’s systematic macro process and how they are using it to analyze the current challenging environment. We also cover a wide range of macro topics, including the importance of the duration of treasury issuance, Fed policy, the changing correlation dynamics of stocks and bonds, their unique drawdown prediction model and their outlook for housing.

#macro #federalreserve

00:00 - Intro
01:50 - Lessons from Working at Ned Davis Research
05:30 - The link between commodities and macro
07:39 - A data driven macro process
09:18 - Where quantitative and discretionary analysis work best in macro
12:00 - Investing in a changing world
15:17 - The importance of the duration of treasury issuance
24:43 - Are long rates driven by fundamentals or supply and demand?
29:50 - Warren and Fernando's view on the current economy
31:09 - Is the negative correlation of stocks and bonds over?
41:54 - What does Fed policy look like going forward?
45:47 - The future of the housing market
49:50 - Modeling the probability of market drawdowns
55:12 - The one lesson Fernando would teach the average investor
56:24 - The one lesson Warren would teach the average investor

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