Bull Market on Borrowed Time | What Ned Davis Research’s Proven 45-Year System Says Now
Excess ReturnsSeptember 15, 202500:59:50

Bull Market on Borrowed Time | What Ned Davis Research’s Proven 45-Year System Says Now

Ned Davis Research’s Chief Global Investment Strategist Tim Hayes joins us to break down NDR’s “360°” weight-of-the-evidence framework—how price, breadth, sentiment, macro and valuation fit together—and what those signals are saying right now. We dig into why he still classifies this as a secular bull market with rising secular-bear risks, how to separate real breadth thrusts from dead-cat bounces, the evolving bond/equity correlation, mega-cap concentration risk, the case for value/EM in a defensively rotating tape, and why gold’s secular and cyclical trends remain compelling. You’ll also hear how NDR allocates across stocks, bonds, cash (and gold), and Tim’s timeless lesson for investors: stay objective, disciplined, and flexible.

Topics Covered

* NDR’s 360° process: price + sentiment + macro + valuation, combined via equal-weighted composites (“weight of the evidence”)
* How to use breadth, put/call, and thrust signals without getting faked out
* Secular bull vs. secular bear: what would actually trigger the secular turn
* Reading the bond market: why the stock/bond correlation flipped in 2022 and what a 10-year above approximately 5.0–5.25% could mean
* Concentration risk in mega-cap tech; implications for the U.S. vs. the rest of the world
* Where value, small caps, and EM can shine in defensive rotations
* Gold: drivers of the move, secular/cyclical setup, and role in a balanced allocation
* Practical allocation: when cash was king (2022), current market-weight posture, and sizing for gold
* “No Pets Allowed”: why aggregates beat single “pet” indicators
* Using historical analogs carefully—and what to learn (and not learn) from them
* Tim’s core lesson: you can’t forecast reliably—stay flexible and evidence-driven

Timestamps (YouTube Chapters)

* 00:00 Don’t fight the tape—or the Fed (opening context)
* 01:06 Intro and why NDR’s process beats single charts
* 02:58 NDR’s 360° framework and composite models
* 05:31 Indicators that matter: breadth, sentiment, macro/valuation
* 08:11 Asset-allocation model (stocks/bonds/cash) and real-time record
* 09:27 “Secular bull intact; secular-bear risk rising” explained
* 13:04 What counts as a secular bear (’66–’82, 2000–’09)
* 15:05 Tightening vs. easing cycles and thrust reliability
* 16:22 What a breadth thrust actually looks like
* 19:55 From sentiment extremes to 50/200-day confirmation
* 20:06 Bonds and stocks: the correlation flip since 2022
* 22:47 Duration, rate-cut hopes, and why cash led in 2022
* 24:02 Mega-cap concentration risk—paths from here
* 27:23 Valuation: tech earnings yield at extremes; U.S. most expensive
* 29:14 Where value/small caps/EM can win; China’s role in EM
* 33:25 Gold’s standout year—drivers and positioning
* 36:16 Gold’s secular and cyclical bull case
* 37:13 How much gold belongs in a balanced portfolio
* 40:32 “No Pets Allowed”: trust aggregates, not single signals
* 47:16 Bear-watch vs. rally-watch signals in 2025
* 49:02 Using historical analogs without overfitting
* 51:00 NDR culture: objectivity over narratives
* 53:41 Why independence matters
* 53:59 Two closing questions: contrarian belief and one lesson
* 59:03 Where to find Tim and NDR; disclaimer