If you're interested in quant macro, investing through economic regimes, or how to build a repeatable, robust investment process, this episode is for you.
Topics Covered:
Why Aahan prefers a systematic approach to macro investing
Pros and cons of quant vs. discretionary macro
How Prometheus processes 1,000+ variables into asset-specific signals
Why understanding the present is more important than predicting the future
Current macro regime: growth, inflation, recession risks
What Prometheus learned from modeling the Liberation Day tariffs
Why confidence, not just GDP, is key to understanding tariff impact
Why the economy is more resilient to rate hikes today
The changing nature of monetary policy transmission
How Prometheus translates macro signals into S&P 500 portfolio construction
The importance of clearly defining max drawdowns in strategy design
What most investors get wrong about macro data and markets
Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction
02:00 – Why Prometheus uses a systematic framework
06:00 – Can macro be systematized like factor investing?
10:00 – How Prometheus filters 1,000+ economic variables
14:00 – The danger of relying on popular macro indicators
18:00 – Current macro regime: growth, inflation, and recession odds
21:00 – Modeling the Liberation Day tariffs
29:00 – Confidence and business investment risk from tariffs
33:00 – Range of outcomes vs. pinpoint forecasts
35:00 – Why this cycle is more resilient than many predicted
39:00 – The impact of immigration and secular shifts in the economy
44:00 – Monetary transmission is broken—and that’s inflationary
47:00 – Prometheus' S&P 500 strategy: carry, trend, and mean reversion
52:00 – Risk control and managing drawdowns
54:00 – Why you don’t need to explain everything in macro
56:00 – Aahan's biggest investing lesson