Mag Seven Margin Crunch | Cameron Dawson on Tariffs, Recession Risk and the Defensive Investing Trap
Excess ReturnsMay 03, 202500:51:51

Mag Seven Margin Crunch | Cameron Dawson on Tariffs, Recession Risk and the Defensive Investing Trap

Are we heading toward a recession—or just stuck in macroeconomic purgatory? In this episode of Excess Returns, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler sit down with Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, to explore the uncertain territory between headline-driven panic and hard data reality. From the implications of sweeping tariffs to the capital account war no one's talking about, Cameron offers one of the sharpest macro takes we've heard. We cover where the market might go next, how investors should respond to volatility, and what signals to trust in a confusing environment.

Topics Covered:

Why we’re in a “no man’s land” between tariffs and hard data

The potential economic fallout of 145% tariffs on China

Capital account war: Why treasury demand may be fading

What the collapse in shipping and trucking data tells us

How margin compression could trigger job cuts

The case for value over growth after a Mag 7 blow-off

Using technicals, sentiment, and positioning to spot turning points

Why quality stocks may beat traditional defensives

Whether hedging is worth it vs. holding T-bills

Practical strategies for rebalancing through market chaos

Timestamps:
00:00 – Opening macro setup: tariffs, soft data, and no man’s land
04:00 – Tariffs, inflation, and the Wiley Coyote economy
07:00 – What freight and supply chain data reveal
10:00 – Capital account war and treasury demand
14:00 – Why the dollar may be structurally weaker
18:00 – When do international stocks outperform the US?
22:00 – Mag 7 blow-off top and value rotation
26:00 – Advertising, operating leverage, and economic sensitivity
30:00 – Retirement flows and retail equity exposure
34:00 – Using sentiment and technicals to spot flushes
37:00 – Volatility, flush metrics, and how to buy during fear
41:00 – Quality over defensiveness in portfolio construction
43:00 – Hedging vs. holding cash vs. behavioral support
45:00 – Personalized rebalancing strategies for different clients
47:00 – Cameron’s one investing belief that her peers would disagree with
49:00 – The one lesson Cameron would teach the average investor
50:00 – Where to follow Cameron and read her work