Navigating Deleveraging Events | Andy Constan
Excess ReturnsAugust 15, 202401:02:32

Navigating Deleveraging Events | Andy Constan

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan, founder of DampedSpring . We cover a wide range of topics, including recent market volatility, the broader economic outlook, and Andy's perspectives on inflation and monetary policy. Andy shares his framework for analyzing deleveraging events, emphasizes the importance of thinking in probabilities for market outcomes, and discusses potential long-term impacts of factors like AI and deglobalization on the economy. We explore his views on different economic scenarios and the Federal Reserve's actions. As always, Andy provides nuanced insights into market analysis and investment decisions, making for a thought-provoking conversation.

0:00 Introduction
1:33 Recent market volatility and deleveraging events
11:05 VIX spike and market liquidity concerns
20:29 Jobs report reaction and market pricing
28:45 Current state of the economy and inflation outlook
36:01 Analyzing Federal Reserve policy
42:11 Probabilities of different economic scenarios
48:48 Long-term inflation trends and impact of factors like AI
56:02 Market analogues and comparison to 1998

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