Summary: We have just completed market prediction season. Its the time of year where there are countless forecasts about what the economy will do in the new year. Its when experts tell you what interest rates will do for the year. And most of all, its when you see a variety of predictions for where the S&P 500 is heading this year. The experts making these predictions even do you the favor of giving you exact price targets so you know exactly what will happen. But there will be one major problem with almost all of these predictions: they will be wrong. In this week's episode, we discuss why market forecasting is so difficult and highlight some of the tricks that market forecasters use to make their predictions seem better in retrospect than they actually were.
Jack's article on the Perils of Market Forecasts: http://blog.validea.com/the-perils-of-market-forecasting/
Lessons from Jim O’Shaughnessy: https://25iq.com/2018/07/21/lessons-from-jim-oshaughnessy/
Reacting to “Doom and Gloom” Stock Forecasts May Cost You: https://www.zacksim.com/reacting-doom-gloom-stock-forecasts-may-cost/
Can We Improve Predictions? Q&A with Philip "Superforecasting" Tetlock: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/can-we-improve-predictions-q-a-with-philip-superforecasting-tetlock/
ABOUT THE PODCAST
Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long-term investors.
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