Tariffs Have Caused Chaos in Markets | Here is Why They May Not Derail the Economy
Excess ReturnsMarch 13, 202501:03:19

Tariffs Have Caused Chaos in Markets | Here is Why They May Not Derail the Economy

In this episode of Excess Returns, host Matt Zeigler is joined by Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist of Clearnomics, and Shannon Saccocia, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth at Neuberger Berman. They dive deep into the current market volatility and economic uncertainties facing investors. From tariff concerns to shifting consumer behaviors, they provide valuable insights on navigating these challenging times while maintaining a long-term investment perspective.

Key topics discussed:

• **Tariffs and Market Uncertainty**: How ongoing tariff discussions are creating business uncertainty, affecting pricing decisions, and potentially impacting economic growth

• **Consumer Resilience**: Analysis of consumer spending patterns, the importance of employment stability, and how different consumer segments are responding to economic pressures

• **GDP Growth Projections**: Examination of current GDP forecasts, including the Atlanta Fed's concerning Q1 projections, and why these numbers might be overly pessimistic

• **Federal Reserve Strategy**: Discussion on potential interest rate cuts for 2025, how the Fed is balancing inflation concerns with economic growth, and the challenges of monetary policy during tariff implementation

• **Market Broadening**: Insights on investment rotation beyond the Magnificent 7 tech stocks into sectors like healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary

• **International Investment Opportunities**: Why investors should consider international exposure, particularly in European markets and potentially emerging markets including China

00:00 Intro and guest introductions
02:00 Tariff uncertainty and its impact on businesses
05:32 How companies are adjusting hiring plans and pricing
09:00 Operating margins and earnings growth expectations
13:10 Tariffs' effect on economic growth
16:51 The state of the consumer in March 2025
21:42 Labor market shifts and part-time work trends
26:30 Federal Reserve outlook and interest rate cuts
33:24 Tariffs vs. demand-driven inflation
35:42 What investors are looking for in 2025
42:19 Sectors to watch: Healthcare and Financials
47:27 International diversification opportunities
51:49 Becoming more constructive on China
54:42 How investment strategists are using AI tools
58:26 Investment lessons for the average investor
01:00:13 Being a futurist vs. a historian as an investor
01:02:48 Closing thoughts and how to follow the guests
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