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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Tobias Carlisle, founder and portfolio manager at the Acquirers Fund, and author of the new book “Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett’s Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking.” Tobias joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how timeless strategic principles from *The Art of War* apply to investing and how Warren Buffett embodies many of those ideas—from invincibility and victory without conflict to the disciplined avoidance of ruin. The conversation connects Buffett’s real-world decisions—from Apple to General Re to Japan’s trading houses—to broader lessons on temperament, risk, and wisdom in markets.
Main topics covered:
• The three key ideas from The Art of War that define Buffett’s approach: invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength
• Why Buffett’s General Re acquisition was a misunderstood masterstroke in defensive investing
• How Buffett achieved “victory without conflict” through his massive Apple investment
• The principle of via negativa — succeeding by avoiding mistakes and ruin
• Temperament vs. intellect and the psychology of avoiding self-defeat
• Circle of competence and why simplicity often beats complexity
• Sins of omission vs. sins of commission in investing decisions
• How Buffett applies wu wei (effortless action) through patience and alignment with natural forces
• Lessons from Buffett’s Japanese trading house investments and moral law in business
• The role of reputation, intuition (coup d’œil), and character in long-term investing
• Charlie Munger’s blueprint and the strategic architecture of Berkshire Hathaway
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and overview of Tobias Carlisle’s key ideas
02:00 Applying Sun Tzu’s “invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength” to Buffett
06:00 The General Re acquisition as a defensive masterpiece
12:00 Victory without conflict — Buffett’s Apple investment
19:00 The principle of via negativa and avoiding ruin
22:00 Survival, temperament, and controlling emotion in investing
25:00 Circle of competence and the power of simplicity
28:00 Sins of omission vs. sins of commission
32:00 Temperament, intellect, and avoiding self-defeat
40:00 Wu wei and investing with effortless alignment
49:00 Position sizing, concentration, and the Kelly Criterion
50:00 Buffett’s investments in Japan’s trading houses
56:00 Reputation, intuition, and the power of pattern recognition
61:00 Charlie Munger’s blueprint and Buffett’s strategic genius
64:00 Closing thoughts and where to find Tobias online