Avoid the 60-40 Trap | Why 85% Don't Buy the Best Diversifiers | Mike Philbrick
Excess ReturnsAugust 26, 202501:03:31

Avoid the 60-40 Trap | Why 85% Don't Buy the Best Diversifiers | Mike Philbrick

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Philbrick of Resolve Asset Management to discuss why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may no longer be enough, the role of “psychological commodities” like gold and Bitcoin, and how return stacking can change the way investors think about diversification. Mike shares insights on macro regimes, investor psychology, and why these once-fringe assets may now be foundational in building resilient portfolios.

**Topics Covered:**

* Why the 1982–2020 period was a “golden era” for stocks and bonds
* How today’s macro regime challenges traditional diversification
* The case for gold and Bitcoin as portfolio diversifiers
* Debt, inflation, and the shifting role of scarce assets
* Why lack of cash flows is a feature, not a bug, for gold & Bitcoin
* Generational differences in crypto adoption and advisor psychology
* How return stacking works and why it matters for investors
* The evolving regulatory and institutional landscape for Bitcoin
* Risks: existential threats, quantum computing, policy changes
* Tokenization, blockchain innovation, and the future of finance
* Mike’s one lesson for the average investor

**Timestamps:**
00:00 – Why the 1982–2020 period was a golden era
03:00 – Stocks, bonds, and changing correlations
07:00 – Debt, inflation, and the macro backdrop
10:00 – Gold, Bitcoin, and the cash flow debate
14:20 – Why investors resist gold & Bitcoin
19:00 – Generational divides and adoption rates
23:00 – The evolution of gold and parallels to Bitcoin
26:30 – What is Bitcoin? Digital gold vs growth asset
28:30 – Career risk flipping: from owning to not owning
32:00 – Behavioral biases and implementation frictions
35:00 – Sizing matters: avoiding “all or nothing” mistakes
36:00 – Market-cap weights and neutral allocations
38:00 – Long-term real returns of gold & Bitcoin
40:00 – Will Bitcoin and gold compete or complement?
43:00 – Portfolio construction: risk-weighting gold & Bitcoin
44:00 – Return stacking explained
49:00 – Trend following and dead money periods
51:00 – Risks: quantum computing, regulation, behavior
56:00 – Tokenization, blockchain rails, and innovation
1:01:13 – Mike’s one lesson for the average investor