Whenever any of us analyze the decisions we make in investing, there is always a tendency to think that what we end up knowing in retrospect was obvious at the time. There is a tendency to believe that decisions that we could have made were easier than they actually were. But that’s just not the way things work, especially when we are faced with high stress situations and very uncertain outcomes, which is the situation we all face today.
In this episode, we discuss the challenge of analyzing the current market environment and how what might seem obvious in retrospect is far from it today.
We discuss:
The wide range of potential outcomes for the COVID-19 pandemic
The uncertainty surrounding the current unprecedented economic shutdown
The current market valuation relative to 2008 and market history
Jack's article: http://blog.validea.com/a-letter-to-my-future-investing-self/
ABOUT THE PODCAST
Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long-term investors.
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