A Housing Market on Edge | Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather on What Comes Next
Excess ReturnsJune 23, 202500:50:33

A Housing Market on Edge | Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather on What Comes Next

🎙️ What happens when the U.S. housing market shifts from a seller’s dream to a buyer’s battleground? In this episode of Excess Returns, Redfin Chief Economist and author of Hate the Game, Daryl Fairweather, joins us to break down one of the most dramatic inflection points in real estate in over a decade. From rising insurance costs and buyer psychology to zoning reform and the implications of tariffs, we unpack the structural and behavioral forces reshaping the housing market—and what they mean for investors, homeowners, and policymakers alike.

📌 Topics Covered:
• Why this is the biggest buyer’s market since 2013
• Regional breakdown: why Florida and Texas are seeing the sharpest shifts
• How rising insurance, HOA fees, and climate risk are colliding
• Buyer vs. seller psychology: who needs to adjust faster?
• Rent vs. own dynamics in a high-rate environment
• How tariffs are influencing mortgage rates and construction costs
• The hidden implications of zoning laws and land value taxes
• What falling rents in major metros really tell us
• Why maintenance costs—and uncertainty—will define future homeownership
• Climate change, flood risk, and migration patterns
• Economic “cheat codes” for navigating today’s real estate landscape
• Why people should stop viewing their homes as investments
• The lesson Daryl would teach every investor: how to overcome unfair games

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – Sellers outnumber buyers: the biggest shift in a decade
01:20 – Why the balance of power is changing in real estate
03:00 – Florida, Texas, and the Sunbelt’s mounting housing problems
05:10 – The housing market’s connection to consumer health
08:09 – Buyer psychology, renting vs. owning, and monthly costs
10:45 – Why first-time homebuyers might have an edge now
12:09 – Zoning reform, land value taxes, and the policy landscape
15:00 – Developers pulling back: the end of a construction boom
17:00 – Tariffs and the uncertainty they introduce to housing
20:00 – Rents are falling—what it really means
21:47 – Zoning reform: the good, the bad, and the political
25:25 – Record cancellations and what they signal about market stress
29:05 – Climate change, insurance costs, and relocation trends
35:52 – Economic decision-making and home maintenance planning
40:37 – Inflation, unemployment, and the Fed’s uncertain outlook
42:01 – What breaks first: inflation or employment?
44:00 – The one investing lesson Daryl would teach everyone
45:00 – Why viewing your home as an “investment” is a mistake
47:09 – How understanding unfair games gives you an edge
49:00 – Where to follow Daryl and how to get her book