The No Landing Scenario | Cem Karsan |The Case for Structural Inflation
Excess ReturnsFebruary 08, 202401:01:15

The No Landing Scenario | Cem Karsan |The Case for Structural Inflation

In this episode, our most popular guest returns for his third appearance on Excess Returns. We talk with Kai Volatility founder Cem Karsan about a wide range of topics, including the future outlook for inflation, what the Fed is likely to do going forward, structured products, ODTE options, the importance of thinking in probabilities and a lot more. We also get some crumbs and get Cem's take on option dealer flows and the potential coming February window of weakness.

If you found this video valuable, you might also enjoy our other two interviews with Cem Karsan.

In our first interview, we take a deeper dive into his dealer positioning models and the basis for his macroeconomic framework. You can find that interview here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMWRWn8SNzc

In our second interview, we looked at how Cem manages his personal portfolio
https://youtu.be/VHQpZIOpZlM

00:00 - Intro
02:26 - The drivers of structural inflation
06:14 - The challenge of the Fed's dual mandate
10:17 - There is no landing
13:11 - Fed rate cuts
15:30 - A potential resurgence in inflation
18:13 - Parallels to the 1970s
21:46 - Significant differences from the 1970s
27:52 - The risks of structured products
35:55 - The risks of the rise of 0DTE options
45:27 - Breadcrumbs and the February window of weakness
51:41 - The importance of thinking in probabilities
56:19 - Cem's biggest reason for worry and optimism

#cemkarsan #optionsinvesting #inflation #economy #macro

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