Main Topics Covered:
The Fed and Soft Landing: Cullen evaluates whether the Federal Reserve has successfully managed inflation and engineered a soft landing, reframing the analogy as stabilizing an economy in flight rather than landing it.
Tariffs and Inflation: A deep dive into Trump’s tariff policies, exploring their impact as a corporate tax, their potential to drive inflation, and whether they can bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.
National Debt Concerns: Cullen shares his take on the U.S. national debt, downplaying immediate risks while acknowledging the long-term inflationary dangers of unchecked government spending creep.
DOGE and Deficit Reduction: Thoughts on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), its potential to cut waste, and the challenges of moving the needle given the dominance of entitlements and defense spending.
AI’s Economic Impact: How artificial intelligence might boost productivity, its limits in transforming retail demand, and whether it offsets tariff-related economic pressures.
Bond vs. Stock Market Smarts: Cullen debunks the myth that the bond market is inherently smarter than the stock market, emphasizing both are efficient in their own right.
Mortgage Rates and Housing: A look at whether we’ll see ultra-low mortgage rates (like 3%) again, driven by secular trends in technology and population growth.
Crypto Reserve Fund: Cullen critiques the idea of a U.S. crypto reserve, arguing it diverts resources from productive economic investments.
Leg Day Economics: A lighthearted yet serious take on why leg day matters—not just for fitness, but for longevity and stability.
[00:00:00] The Soft Landing Myth - Cullen explains why the economy doesn’t land—it flies, and the Fed’s just adjusting altitude.
[00:03:07] Fed’s Inflation Control - Has the Fed tamed inflation without crashing the economy? Cullen weighs in.
[00:07:28] Tariffs as Corporate Taxes - Trump’s tariffs unpacked: who really pays, and will they spark inflation?
[00:13:25] Manufacturing’s Decline - Can tariffs revive U.S. manufacturing, or is that a lost cause?
[00:23:28] National Debt Reality - Cullen on why the U.S. debt isn’t the crisis some fear—yet.
[00:28:47] DOGE and Deficits - Can Elon’s DOGE cut waste, or is the budget too entrenched?
[00:32:57] Fed’s Dominance - Fiscal creep vs. Fed power: Cullen defends the Fed’s grip on markets.
[00:41:00] AI’s Economic Impact - Productivity boost or overhyped bubble? Cullen tempers AI expectations.
[00:47:33] Bond vs. Stock Smarts - Are bond traders geniuses, or just Fed followers? Cullen says both markets shine.
[00:52:16] Mortgage Rate Future - Will we see 3% mortgages again? Cullen bets on low rates returning.
[00:57:56] Crypto Reserve Critique - Cullen slams the crypto reserve idea—better to invest in real output.
[01:06:51] Leg Day Economics - A fun finish: why strong legs matter more than you think!
Related Videos
Behind the Madoff Scandal with a Trader on the Inside | Andrew Cohen
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Andrew Cohen, who shares his extraordinary journey from Goldman Sachs trader to working directly with Bernie Madoff, and ultimately becom...
The Colossal Mistake | Richard Bernstein on the Risks of Tariffs and Passive Investing
Join hosts Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau as they sit down with Richard Bernstein, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. In this insightful conversation, Rich shares his ...
Markets Are Screaming One Thing | Jim Paulsen on the Real Risk to the Bull Market
In this episode of Excess Returns, we are joined by Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives. We unpack the complexities of tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and investor psychology amidst a turbulent mar...