Marc Rubinstein on X
https://x.com/MarcRuby
Net Interest
https://www.netinterest.co/
In this episode, we discuss:
* Why the Fed says private credit redemption risks are limited and manageable
* What Blue Owl’s redemption gates reveal about private credit liquidity
* How post-2008 bank regulation pushed risk into private credit, hedge funds, trading firms, and exchanges
* Why banks and private credit firms are both competitors and collaborators
* The “layer cake” of leverage connecting banks, private credit, and borrowers
* How HSBC’s loss tied to Atlas and MFS highlights hidden credit risks
* Why insurance companies have become increasingly tied to private credit
* Why rapid growth can be dangerous in financial businesses
* What bank earnings show about the gap between weak consumer confidence and resilient spending
* Why post-mortem reports from SVB, Credit Suisse, and other failures reveal what investors could not see in real time
* How Revolut became one of the most interesting fintech stories in global banking
* Why Marc calls this a potential golden age of arbitrage
* What Jane Street, public BDC discounts, private asset valuations, and geopolitical fragmentation tell us about market structure
* Why investors may still be too anchored to the 2008 banking playbook
* Where Marc sees risk and opportunity in financials, banks, Europe, and non-bank financial institutions
Timestamps:
00:00 Private credit, hidden risks, and correlation spikes
05:03 Why Blue Owl became a private credit warning sign
10:20 How private credit grew after the 2008 financial crisis
15:30 Banks and private credit as financial “frenemies”
19:44 HSBC, Atlas, MFS, and the layer cake of leverage
24:11 Apollo, Athene, insurance assets, and private credit incentives
29:20 Why higher rates have not broken more of the financial system
33:40 Bank earnings, consumer confidence, and resilient spending
37:20 Why “I don’t know” can be a powerful signal from bank CEOs
41:46 Revolut and the ambition to build a truly global bank
47:38 Why growth can be dangerous in finance
52:19 Private assets, public BDC discounts, and arbitrage opportunities
56:34 What investors misunderstand about banks today
59:31 How Marc would think about financials as a long-short investor