🔍 Topics Covered:
The uncomfortable realities of trend following performance
Why many investors misunderstand managed futures
Eric’s view on the current drawdown and client behavior
Setting expectations with empirical data and simulations
The case for blending passive equities with trend following
Capital formation vs. risk transfer markets explained
What market participants get wrong about futures
The surprising resilience of cap-weighted equity indexes
The flaws in relying on bonds as diversifiers
How regime shifts and correlation changes affect trend models
Philosophical take on risk, regulation, and structural market design
⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 - Trend following's uncomfortable truth
01:46 - Dealing with the worst drawdown in a decade
03:21 - How client types behave under stress
06:22 - Risks of equities and macro failing together
08:25 - Setting expectations: empirical vs. theoretical
11:00 - Why systematic trend is still Eric’s best guess
12:15 - Is the 1970s a valid analog?
14:00 - What most CTAs won't admit about whipsaws
16:00 - What gives Eric peace of mind during pain
18:53 - Why most clients won’t double down in drawdowns
21:11 - The value of investor-weighted returns
21:44 - Capital formation vs. risk transfer markets
27:01 - Why producers and consumers hedge
32:00 - How trend followers profit from imbalance
36:00 - Why Eric bundled equities and trend
40:28 - Why the strategy is operationally elegant
43:00 - Why market cap weighting still dominates
46:52 - Rethinking bonds as diversifiers
50:00 - Why Eric doesn’t include bonds in Standpoint
54:19 - Are there grifts in risk transfer markets?
57:00 - Futures: structure, safety, and transparency
59:00 - Can you predict correlations? Eric’s honest take
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