You Have 95% in US Equities. It Should Be 35% | Julian Brigden on Where the Real Outperformance Is
Excess ReturnsOctober 08, 202501:02:57

You Have 95% in US Equities. It Should Be 35% | Julian Brigden on Where the Real Outperformance Is

In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today’s volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we’re in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can position amid shifting policies, labor constraints, and AI’s uncertain impact. He also explains the risks of U.S. exceptionalism, the fragility of equity markets, and why he’s long everything *not* tied to the U.S.

Topics covered:

* The role of macro as a “supporting actor” that becomes essential at tops and bottoms
* Why this may be the best macro environment in 40 years
* The policy and market implications of tariffs, immigration, and a weaker dollar
* Positioning for U.S. underperformance and the case for international assets
* How Brigden uses price confirmation and technical signals in his process
* The dollar’s impact on equity and sector leadership
* Inflation, labor markets, and the “no firing, no hiring” phenomenon
* Why AI’s economic impact will take longer than expected
* The probabilities of recession, inflation, and soft landing scenarios
* Fiscal dominance, debt, and the future of financial repression
* Why bonds are “a crap place to have your cash”
* The fragile reflexive cycle of passive investing and U.S. equities
* Lessons for individual investors about thinking independently and avoiding industry “cheerleaders”

Timestamps:
00:00 Macro at extremes and U.S. underperformance risk
02:00 How Brigden uses macro analysis to time markets
06:00 Why this is a generational macro opportunity
08:00 Tariffs, growth, and the policy shift under Trump
12:00 Price confirmation and process discipline
15:00 The case for non-U.S. assets and sector rotation
20:00 Inflation waves and the labor market’s fragility
26:00 AI, uncertainty, and hiring hesitation
36:00 Recession vs. reacceleration probabilities
42:00 The debt problem and fiscal dominance
47:00 Sector positioning and the weak dollar playbook
51:00 Passive flows and market reflexivity
56:00 The hyper-financialized U.S. economy
01:00:00 AI, equity valuations, and risk of disappointment
01:01:00 Lessons for investors and independent thinking