Jim Paulsen on X
https://x.com/jimwpaulsen
Paulsen Perspectives
https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/
Topics Covered
* Why Jim thinks the U.S. economy is getting closer to stall speed
* How the Iran conflict and oil prices could affect inflation, growth and the Fed
* Why Jim believes the inflation fears are very different from the 1970s
* Why raising rates may not solve a supply-driven oil shock
* The case for Fed easing if growth becomes the dominant concern
* Why tech and the Mag 7 may underperform even without crashing
* How small caps, value stocks, equal weight indexes, international stocks and emerging markets fit into the same broad market bucket
* Jim’s “bust booming” framework for the U.S. economy
* Why new era investment spending is driving an unusually large share of GDP growth
* Why Main Street sentiment may be so weak despite strong stock market headlines
* How AI spending compares with the 1990s internet buildout
* Why a shift from inflation obsession to growth focus could change the market backdrop
* Why Jim thinks investors may want to reconsider long bonds
Timestamps
00:00 Intro and Jim’s current market outlook
04:00 Iran, oil risk and why the conflict may be closer to resolution
08:46 Why slower growth could force the Fed to cut rates
13:44 International stocks, the dollar and broad market leadership
18:05 Why today’s inflation problem is not the 1970s
23:14 Defining the “bust booming” economy
28:17 Why the old era economy is near stall speed
32:25 How policy may be missing almost 90 percent of the economy
37:37 What happens if new era spending slows
41:51 How investors can think about new era exposure
46:36 AI spending, productivity and the 1990s internet comparison
50:17 Why AI disruption could require more policy stimulus
53:00 The major shift from inflation obsession to growth focus