We Haven't Seen This in 80 Years | Jim Paulsen on What Ends the Hidden Recession
The Jim Paulsen ShowAugust 27, 202501:01:32

We Haven't Seen This in 80 Years | Jim Paulsen on What Ends the Hidden Recession

In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, we break down the state of the economy, the Fed’s policy stance, inflation risks, and what’s really happening beneath the surface of the stock market. Jim explains why the headline numbers often mask the struggles of many companies, why the S&P 500 looks stretched while much of the market remains undervalued, and what investors should watch as we head into the fall.

---

### Topics Covered

* Weak GDP growth, jobs slowdown, and why the U.S. may avoid recession despite sluggish data
* How fiscal policy, tariffs, the dollar, and monetary policy are shaping growth
* Why corporate profits outside the S\&P 500 remain below trend despite large-cap strength
* The Fed’s inflation obsession, the 2% target debate, and Jackson Hole policy shifts
* Jim’s case that inflation fears are overblown, with supporting data on CPI, PPI, wages, and expectations
* Historical supports for bull markets (liquidity, interest rates, dollar, confidence) and why they’ve been missing
* Divergence between S\&P 500 valuations vs. the rest of the market
* Structural disconnect between small/mid-caps and large-cap earnings
* The opportunity for market broadening if the Fed eases policy
* What Jim will be watching heading into year-end

---

### Timestamps

00:00 – Economic growth slowdown and risks of recession
02:00 – Policy backdrop: fiscal, monetary, dollar, and tariffs
07:00 – Why recession may still be avoided
15:00 – Powell, Jackson Hole, and the Fed’s inflation stance
24:00 – Are inflation fears overblown?
36:00 – Inflation surprise index and momentum
37:00 – What supports bull markets (liquidity, rates, dollar, confidence)
41:00 – Trendline analysis: S\&P vs. broader market
47:00 – Russell 2000 earnings vs. S\&P 500 divergence
52:00 – Corporate profits divergence and policy implications
59:00 – What Jim is watching heading into year-end