https://youtu.be/ZgIrwrG7uKM
In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand to break down the July options expiration cycle and its market implications. They discuss why the current setup—dominated by extreme call positioning and ultra-low volatility—is creating conditions ripe for a potential correction. With short-term options activity overwhelming stock volumes and macro catalysts on the horizon, the market may be underestimating the risks ahead. Whether you're a long-term investor or an options trader, this conversation offers critical insights into how these hidden flows shape market dynamics.
📌 Topics Covered:
Why the July OPEX setup is “big, beautiful, and overbought”
What extreme call skew tells us about positioning and risk
How low volatility readings signal potential for sharp movement
The role of gamma, vanna, and charm in dealer positioning
Why CPI, VIX expiration, and tariffs could be critical catalysts
How implied vol is pricing in “no risk”—and why that’s dangerous
Why correlations are dropping and what it says about market sentiment
Short-term vs long-term impacts of options expiration cycles
Overbought signals in crypto, copper, and XLB
Tactical ideas: selling calls, buying puts, and using probabilities to your advantage
⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 - Market setup: Calls dominate July expiration
02:00 - Crypto returns & macro resilience
05:00 - The role of dealer hedging and options flows
07:00 - The OPEX cycle as a market turning point
10:00 - Expectations vs reality: What recent expirations tell us
14:00 - CPI & volatility risk ahead of expiration
16:00 - The statistical case for post-OPEX volatility
18:00 - Gamma’s predictive power on short-term volatility
20:00 - Call skew hits 12-month highs
24:00 - Why “window of weakness” matters now
28:00 - Options pricing as a truth detector
32:00 - June recap: Peace deal, tariffs, and the rally
35:00 - Volatility curve and implied risk heading into August
38:00 - Positioning extremes: Calls expensive, puts cheap
41:00 - Tariff fatigue: Why markets aren’t reacting
44:00 - Correlation breakdown and single-stock chasing
46:00 - Risks stacking up: CPI, Fed, tariffs, buybacks
48:00 - Implied vol signals in Bitcoin, copper, and XLB