đź’ˇ Topics Covered:
Why volatility often contracts before OPEX and expands after
The significance of the June 2025 OPEX as potentially the largest ever
Dealer gamma, hedging flows, and what they signal about near-term volatility
Why implied vol is so low despite major geopolitical risk (e.g. Israel-Iran conflict)
The JP Morgan collar trade and its influence on the 5,900 level in the S&P
How zero-DTE options impact market stability and risk signaling
A potential regime shift: AI stocks, “taco trades,” and declining liquidity
What vol metrics like VIX, VVIX, and correlation are really saying
The hidden risk of overconfidence when markets ignore bad news
Breakdown of sector-specific volatility expectations (tech, energy, gold, Bitcoin)
⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and market resilience despite bad news
01:35 Volatility complacency and the Jurassic Park analogy
02:30 Options volume growth vs. stock volume since 2020
04:50 How hedging flows affect price action
07:30 OPEX cycles and volatility crush
09:00 Why June’s expiration could be historic
10:30 Volatility setup: VIX, FOMC, and implied vol behavior
12:00 Realized vs. implied volatility heading into OPEX
14:00 Dealer gamma, negative gamma, and expected volatility
18:00 Why markets didn’t spike more on Middle East conflict
20:00 The case for a 5,900 SPX target into month-end
22:00 Review of May’s OPEX expectations and what went wrong
24:00 The “taco trade” and how macro flows flipped the market
26:45 Low volatility regime: dead or just on pause?
29:00 The low-volatility floor and why it matters
32:00 Dealer positioning and lack of downside hedging
34:00 Zero-DTE flows and short-term stability vs. long-term risk
38:00 Correlation breakdown: tech vs. everything else
41:00 What the Oracle earnings reaction reveals about positioning
44:00 AI optimism, token vs. tariff mindset
47:00 Sector vol breakdown: oil, gold, silver, Bitcoin
50:00 The JP Morgan collar trade and implications for SPX range
52:00 Wrap-up: Risk regime, volatility floor, and key levels to watch
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