🔑 Topics Covered:
Why May’s OPEX setup is lopsided with call exposure—and why that’s dangerous
The eerie lack of downside hedging despite a big market rally
How zero DTE options and mean reversion flows are masking real volatility
The dangerous illusion of low realized vol vs. wide intraday ranges
Why poor liquidity is a potential precursor for the next volatility event
Analysis of SPX vs. SPY positioning—and which one signals more risk
The “Saul Goodman” signal: What it means and why it might be a contrarian tell
What the data says about a potential flip post-OPEX
June expiration on deck: Could it be the next volatility catalyst?
⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – Brent on liquidity and options skew
01:00 – Is the market ignoring bad macro signals?
04:00 – Saul Goodman, boats, and bearish contrarian signals
05:00 – Record option volumes and their impact
06:15 – How market makers hedge options flows
08:00 – Captain Condor returns (sort of)
10:00 – OPEX cycle and why May might be a local high
12:00 – 80% call delta: The asymmetry heading into expiration
14:00 – June OPEX looks far more consequential
15:00 – Gamma positioning and momentum
17:00 – VIX expiration and post-OPEX reversal data
18:00 – Saul Goodman = “It’s All Good, Man?”
21:00 – Reviewing last month’s thesis
23:00 – Gold, volatility, and options signals
25:00 – Market stalls at resistance – what’s next?
27:00 – SPY vs. SPX positioning: Two different pictures
30:00 – Gamma asymmetry and why downside could accelerate
33:00 – The lack of call buyers speaks volumes
37:00 – Realized volatility is dropping, but risk hasn’t
39:00 – Intraday swings are still massive
43:00 – Have we entered a new volatility regime?
46:00 – Liquidity hasn’t come back—and that matters
49:00 – Volume ≠ liquidity: a trader’s trap
51:00 – The VIX is becoming more fragile over time
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