The Return of Volatility | The OPEX Effect Episode 7
The OPEX EffectApril 16, 202400:47:32

The Return of Volatility | The OPEX Effect Episode 7

In this episode of the OPEX Effect podcast, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand discuss the current market turmoil and its potential impact on options flows. They analyze how the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, coupled with rate volatility and the upcoming U.S. elections, is causing a shift in the market environment from a period of volatility suppression to one of increased volatility. The hosts examine various indicators, such as correlation, dispersion, and the VIX, to highlight the unwinding of previous market flows and the potential for a new volatility regime. They also discuss the implications of the VIX expiration occurring before the equity options expiration and how this could impact the market in the coming week.

0:00 Introduction
1:32 Current market volatility and geopolitical situation
4:31 Explanation of the options expiration (OPEX) cycle
7:46 Comparing current market decline to past situations
10:56 Record VIX options volume on previous Friday
13:01 Discussing the "OPEX Zone" and current positioning
16:55 Massive put interest at SPX 5000 strike
20:08 Comparing current geopolitical risk to COVID crash positioning
21:54 Recapping volatility suppression from previous presentation
25:15 Extreme streak without 2% S&P 500 up/down days ending
29:03 Evidence of volatility and correlation increasing recently
33:18 Discussing volatility across other asset classes like rates
36:37 Charity stream event announcement for April 30th
40:41 Seeing VIX futures rolling to hedge geopolitical risk
43:02 Expecting volatility to remain elevated in coming months
45:58 Closing thoughts on potential for new volatility regime

DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK
https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectapril2024

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA
https://www.spotgamma.com⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER
⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/spotgamma⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER
⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠