In this episode, we look at where things stand coming into the December 2023 options expiration. We look at dealer positioning in the S&P 500 headed into the expiration and what that might mean going forward. We discuss the setup in small-cap stocks, whether we are seeing excessive call buying in single stocks, the JP Morgan Collar trade and a lot more.
#optionstrading
02:02 - Understanding the Options Expiration Cycle
04:44 - The December 2023 Options Expiration
06:27 - Volatility beneath the surface
10:27 - Market pinning and major events
13:12 - The impact of the short vol trade
17:30 - Terminal volatility
20:33 - The return profile of the short volatility trade
23:44 - The major December options expiration
28:25 - The JP Morgan Collar trade
32:25 - What moved? - MAG 7, crypto
37:51 - What's moving? - Small-cap stocks, single stock call buying
42:16 - Could we ever see a repeat of the GameStop frenzy?
46:37 - The December 2023 expiration from a single stock perspective
48:29 - The December 2021 analogue
52:09 - Balancing options flows and macro flows
57:26 - Jack is not the next Warren Buffett
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https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectdecember2023.pdf
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