The Unforecast Episode: Making Our 2025 Market Calls to Show Why Forecasting is a Waste of Time
Excess ReturnsDecember 30, 202401:00:33

The Unforecast Episode: Making Our 2025 Market Calls to Show Why Forecasting is a Waste of Time

We're back with our annual predictions episode, where we look back at our (surprisingly not terrible) 2024 market calls and make fresh predictions for 2025 (which will likely be very wrong). In this episode, we're embracing the humbling experience of market forecasting to prove to everyone (and ourselves) why market forecasting is a waste of time.

You'll hear us:

Review how Justin actually nailed the S&P 500 forecast for 2024 (we're still trying to figure out how)
Break down why predicting markets is so ridiculously hard (but we keep doing it anyway)
Share our thoughts on where inflation and Fed policy might be headed
Make our predictions for 2025 - from S&P targets to potential corrections
Discuss what might drive markets in 2025, including M&A activity, IPOs, and buybacks

We keep it real about our hits and misses, share some laughs about our forecasting methods (including Matt's Van Halen-inspired prediction system), and try to offer some useful insights along the way.

If you enjoy discussions about markets that don't take themselves too seriously while still diving into the important stuff, this episode is for you. Join us as we continue our annual tradition of probably being wrong about everything - but having fun doing it!

0:00 Intro - Setting up 2025 market predictions
2:35 The challenge of market forecasting
5:18 Justin's accurate 2024 prediction
8:45 Looking back at 2024 forecasts
14:22 Matt's Van Halen-inspired prediction
19:40 Market returns and earnings growth
24:15 Berkshire Hathaway's cash position
31:42 Inflation and mortgage rate review
38:52 2025 Market Predictions
44:15 Additional predictions for 2025
47:33 Economic outlook and policy
51:08 Fed policy and rate cuts
55:22 YouTube channel predictions
59:52 Wrap up and closing thoughts

#investing #marketpredictions #financialmarkets #stockmarket #2025forecast #WallStreet