Topics covered:
• Value spreads and how they've evolved from historically consistent ranges to unprecedented widths in recent years
• Why value doesn't necessarily need catalysts or multiple expansion to generate returns
• The impact of intangible assets on value metrics and whether traditional valuation methods need updating
• How indexing and passive investing have affected market dynamics and created potential opportunities
• The underperformance of international stocks compared to US markets and whether that trend might reverse
• Why the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks have defied mean reversion and if that can continue
• How to maintain conviction as a value investor during extended periods of underperformance
0:00 Intro - Jack and Matt introduce Tobias Carlisle, founder of Acquirers Funds and value investing author
2:03 Value spreads - Cliff Asness clip on how value spreads have changed throughout history
4:18 Toby on value spreads - Exploring why value hasn't worked since 2012 and why spreads are incredibly wide today
11:29 The value trap - Toby reflects on missing signals when value itself became overvalued in 2015
12:27 Does value need a catalyst? - Scott McBride clip on what makes value stocks work
14:09 Toby on multiple expansion - How to invest without relying on multiple expansion
19:52 Intangible assets - Kai Wu clip on how ignoring intangibles impacts value investing
21:41 Toby on intangibles - Why flow metrics like operating income are better than book value
25:42 First principles - Why Toby keeps returning to first principles during value's underperformance
28:15 Factor investing - Aswath Damodaran clip questioning whether simple factor investing can still outperform
32:44 Toby on factor complexity - Why simpler investment approaches might still work when the cycle turns
39:22 Mean reversion - Larry Swejo clip on why high growth rates eventually revert to the mean
42:21 Toby on mean reversion - How even the Magnificent 7 will eventually face lower returns
47:43 Indexing effects - Rob Arnott clip on how indexing pushes up valuations of index members
51:23 Toby on indexing - How value investors can benefit from finding quality companies ignored by index flows
55:38 International stocks - Dan Rasmussen clip comparing today's market to the late-90s tech bubble
1:01:04 Toby on U.S. dominance - Why U.S. stocks have outperformed but why that may not continue forever
1:07:13 Wrap-up and thanks
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