The OPEX Effect with Jack, Justin and Brent Kochuba

[00:00:00] Hey guys, this is Jack. One of the biggest areas we've learned the most about in hosting Excess Returns is the impact that options flows can have on the stock market. This has been particularly true in the post-COVID period when the use of options has risen substantially.

[00:00:09] When we look back at our most viewed episodes in the history of the podcast, many have focused on this area, so our listeners have been very interested in the topic as well. To focus on it more regularly and to continue to learn, we've decided to start a new

[00:00:18] podcast called The OPEX Effect with our good friend Brent Kochuba of Spot Gamma, who is also one of our most popular guests. We're including this first episode of the podcast in the Excess Returns feed, but if you'd like to continue to listen going

[00:00:28] forward, please subscribe by using the links in the episode description below or by searching the OPEX Effect on your favorite podcast app. Thank you for listening and please let us know if you have any feedback on the new podcast.

[00:00:37] Welcome to The OPEX Effect, a joint podcast from Excess Returns and Spot Gamma where we take a deep dive into the world of options and the flows they generate in the markets. Join Brent Kochuba, Jack Forehand and me, Justin Carbonneau every month on the

[00:00:48] Options Exploration Week as we look at the major developments in the options world and how they impact all of our portfolios. No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Security's discussed in the podcast may be holdings of clients of the day.

[00:01:03] Alright Brent, we are super excited to be doing this collaborative project with you. One of the great things in doing Excess Returns and in having guests on like yourself is we get to talk to people that are in very different markets than we play in with our

[00:01:23] day jobs. But you know, we can learn from people like you that specialize in options and other parts of the market and what's even cooler is you know, we've decided to do this sort of collaboration where on a monthly basis we're going to get together,

[00:01:41] we're going to have you on, we're going to sit down and talk with you about all the different things that you're seeing in the options market with the flows, dealer positioning and sort of some interesting trends and insights that you're sharing with your

[00:01:56] subscribers and that you're educating people that follow you on. So this is a new initiative, a new sort of podcast we're launching with you. We're calling it as you can, people can see on the screen the OPEX effect.

[00:02:13] And you know, we're just, yeah, we're excited to kind of jump into this. I think this is going to be pretty data intensive in the sense that you know, there's going to be a lot of slides here that Brent will show.

[00:02:27] And so for people that are listening to us on audio, you know, it'd be great if you could pop over to YouTube and check out the Excess Returns channel and check out this episode to see the slides.

[00:02:37] But if you can't, what we're going to do also is we're going to put a link to the slides in the description of the audio. So people are going to be able to download these and then, you know,

[00:02:47] reference some of this stuff over a spot gamma if you want to kind of look at it further. So yeah, maybe I'll just stop there, Brent. And I'll give you sort of a minute or two just to talk about sort of what,

[00:02:58] you know, you're hoping to accomplish with this and then we'll kind of get into it. Thank you guys so much. I'm really excited about this. I just realized the OPEX effects kind of sounds like the butterfly effect.

[00:03:09] So a call by our Flaps aslings moves markets, I guess is the analogy there. But the thing I think we're trying to do here is, is tend to have a lot of the advisory, a little bit longer term, longer term investor audience.

[00:03:26] And I think the options market is shows data and has impact for this type of investor or even trader that has a little bit of a longer term time view. And the options expiration, which we're going to talk about, we're doing this

[00:03:42] every month for options expiration because a lot of times those options positions, their maximum effect comes in around that third Friday of each month, particularly around the quarterly options expiration. So our goal here is to highlight how options analysis and positional analysis

[00:03:56] can be useful for those with a timeframe outside of just, you know, zero DTE options as so much as dominated now in the options market by those flows that you forget that there's a whole lot of other positions that

[00:04:07] are happening. And it's not only interesting, I think from a positional perspective, but also from a sentiment perspective, as some of our little case studies here will document. I think that's great. I think, yeah, this intersection of options tend to be shorter term,

[00:04:20] but like you said, it has this impact on mid range and even longer term investment themes and positioning and all that kind of stuff. So that's where we're going to hopefully find the sweet spot here with a lot of the material that we're going to go over.

[00:04:35] But maybe that's a good place to just kind of, let's start there like at that, you know, why do you think long term investors should be paying attention to some of the things in the options market? Yeah. Thanks, Cheslas.

[00:04:48] So for that, we'll dive into the old presentation here. And what I want to start with is record overall options volume. And, you know, I think a lot of people probably are aware of this by now, but I want to provide a chart just to reveal exactly how

[00:05:04] much this volume has grown over the last couple of years. And this comes with, you know, commission free trading and, you know, around 2020 and, and, you know, the rise of zero DT options now. But there's also a growth in options in all the magnificent seven stocks

[00:05:19] and the like. And now we're seeing record volumes in TLT options. And so, you know, the options market has become this way that a lot of investors and traders have turned to express trading ideas. And again, that that mattered from a positional perspective, but also a sentiment perspective.

[00:05:34] And the reason that it matters from a positional perspective is all of these positions need to be hedged, right? And it's those hedging flows and the analysis of those hedging flows that really, really think give us an edge as we can sort

[00:05:46] of document where those those options strikes are positioned, when they're going to expire, we can estimate how those dealer flows or market making hedging flows are going to influence the stock. And that can affect you on different time for ads.

[00:05:59] And we're going to give you some of those examples here. So to give an example of the relationship between options positions and volatility, this kind of underlines the impact of options trading on market flows. And what you have here along the X axis is our measurement of gamma,

[00:06:18] we call it a gamma index. And essentially what it's doing is it's measuring through our model's amount of gamma that's in the market for the S&P 500. Gamma is just a word that you can use to say how much hedging

[00:06:28] has to take place today for a given move in the S&P 500. And what you could see is that as the gamma index declines, so if you start to push it towards negative, which is a more of a put dominated market, volatility expands.

[00:06:42] And what's so interesting about this chart is that this documents number one, our forecast, which is in red versus what the market is actually doing on a four one day basis in blue. So what we're basically telling you is in the morning, we tell

[00:06:56] you here's how much game is in the market and here's how much volatility you should expect today because of this. And then the blue dots are telling you how much real life volatility actually occurred. And so what this demonstrates is on a short term basis, the link

[00:07:08] between options positioning the S&P 500 in a single day's volatility. And if you zoom out on this, you look at how much volatility is in the market. What is the level of the VIX? If you look at changes around options expiration, we recently

[00:07:20] did a podcast, I guess it was a couple months ago now where we documented for everybody how the market moves around options expiration. There's a lot of data and information in those slides. And I don't want to repeat that here, but if you go back and

[00:07:30] reference that presentation, we talk about some of those longer term effects. So this is just a very simple way to show you a very detailed form the correlation between options positioning and realized volatility in the S&P.

[00:07:44] I'm just curious, going back to slide one, what do you think the biggest cause of the rise in options activity is? And obviously you've got COVID. And if you look at the chart, it's clear 2020, that seems to it has to be COVID driven.

[00:07:54] But before that it was going up a lot too. So what do you think are the biggest causes of that? There's been the, a lot of it is access. Right. It was 10, 15 years ago it was harder to get online options trading. The markets weren't that liquid.

[00:08:07] There wasn't smart routers like there are now. There weren't as many exchanges. And so a lot of it is sort of technology unleashed on the options market that gave people access. The rise of cheap options commissions, not just for the

[00:08:20] retail investor, but also for the hedge fund community as well. And you could kind of dial this into payment for order flow and different things like that. But that just drove the cost of trading down. And so spread started to get tighter through that access.

[00:08:32] It got cheaper to express options trade in the market by large has, you know, the trading market as or traders in general have really come to understand options that they are learning to use them in intelligent ways. And, you know, I think that has really bred the growth

[00:08:48] here. So, you know, it starts with technology offering access and then, you know, when you go through with, you know, the growth of products and understanding how to use these products, it's become something of feedback loop. I'm just curious on slide two, is it easier or

[00:09:04] minute would seem to be from the data? Like it's it's impressive how tight like going to the right, the red dots and the blue dots are. Is it much easier to forecast volatility when it's low than it is in periods where it's really high?

[00:09:16] I think that there are there are two sides of that. It's a great question. Number one is when you have markets that are dominated by call positions, volatility goes down. Right. And that's those are the years basically from April of 2020 into November of 2021.

[00:09:33] Those are markets that were dominated by call positions. Those were by the dip markets, realized volatility just continued to get suppressed. And as a result, those had lower volatility markets one month basis as well. So even if you're a longer term investor, the implications

[00:09:47] of this kind of echo through it is the, you know, the the OPEX effect, right? You have dips are bought. It is a slower grind in the S&P to the upside, but that's a market that has lower risk.

[00:09:58] You know, the classic kind of vol control funds or risk parity funds, whatever it may be, they're getting lower volatility that drives money into equities. It comes this, you know, reinforcing reflexive feedback loops, so to speak. And it's a market regime, right?

[00:10:12] And and it can last really years where you maybe have, you know, a few weeks here where, you know, puts expand because of a headline comes off. But in general, people buy that dip and things continue. After January of 2022, we spent most of the time now kind

[00:10:26] of to the left of 1.0 on this chart. And in that volatility has been reflexive. People have been buying large buying puts or selling puts has been put trading that's been dominating the market. You know, you could argue that kind of maybe into

[00:10:40] August of this year that changed slightly, but the tone of the market's been different. And so back to your original question, the different trading environment, which is some of what this is showing you. But the other thing that maybe this chart doesn't

[00:10:56] show quite as well as that there is also, I think a lower bound to this market when the put positions get so large that volatility spreads wide now and it just becomes disincentivizes people to trade puts. So what I mean by that is the cost of

[00:11:11] volatility hedging gets too high, the cost of puts get too high, puts haven't been performing well. And so you can see there's a few red dots way to the left of this chart, you know, the very lower bound of this chart where actually I think you could

[00:11:25] pick up where the bottom of the market is based on how puts are acting. People don't want to pay for insurance anymore, right? Is basically what that starts to reflect and dealer positioning I think it's so full on puts that you know that market makers are required to

[00:11:37] offer a bit an offer, right? But they can charge prices that are so high that it disincentivizes trading or it or it draws sellers out, right? If I want to put in the puttest price that 100 vol while I'm in just sell it because I know that

[00:11:53] S&P will never go that high, right? So there is again, if you look at this, there is kind of an extreme lower bound of volatility that starts to show up. Well, first of all, you're definitely a pro here because you already got the title of the

[00:12:06] podcast into your answer like within nine minutes of a starty, you've already got the OPEX effects in there. So we could tell we're dealing with a pro here, but what you just talked about in terms of like people buying tons of puts

[00:12:16] and then how that impacts the market, that kind of gets into your next slide here, which is this OPEX cycle. And I remember the big lesson for me around this OPEX cycle was when the Trump and Biden disputed election came up.

[00:12:27] And I think tons of people were buying puts as we headed into that election, you know, thinking we were going to have a catastrophe and then we got a disputed election and the market did not go down and went up. And so maybe maybe you could use that

[00:12:39] as an example or something else and talk about sort of this cycle and how all this works. We can just use Friday to have a chart of this, you know, unfortunately last week, you know, tensions in the Middle East blared up and, you know, it's

[00:12:51] a really bad situation and it's unfortunate and, you know, so, you know, my comments here don't don't reflect kind of that that situation. But the VIX on Friday moves significantly higher relative. And I think I have this chart. Don't go for real quick because the question came up.

[00:13:09] So this chart here on the X axis is the intraday move for the S&P 500. So what did the what's the doorly opening close right in percentage terms and then on the Y axis is the change in VIX from the open to the close.

[00:13:22] And so what you see here is there's a little green dot, a little tough to see. But what that shows us is basically on Friday, the VIX moved more than you would expect for the given move in the S&P. The S&P was only down about eighty

[00:13:33] five point basis points intraday and the VIX spiked, you know, three, four points. And what happened on Friday was people were very concerned about the war over the weekend and if those tensions were going to escalate. And that led to a lot of hedging or

[00:13:48] demand for VIX and volatility hedges and, you know, kind of to your point before Jack around, you know, the Biden-Trump election or a lot of these events that people hedge that don't translate into market impact, right? You and I, you know, the three of

[00:14:05] us could sit here and probably outline a few scenarios which Wall Street would be deeply concerned about the events in the Middle East or whatever it may be. And unfortunately, it would take a magnificent increase, you know, just just something that is magnificent, another great term for

[00:14:23] but just this jump in escalation like Iran joins and, you know, Egypt joins all at once in it and chaos just totally erupts, right? Then maybe Wall Street would would react to that. But anything lighter than that, it's likely that you just overpaid

[00:14:37] for VIX hedges and in your hedging kind of your emotions as opposed to actually doing something that's going to be impactful for your portfolio, if that makes sense. And it was the same thing just real quick in the Russian escalation, Ukraine as well, right?

[00:14:50] Everyone was sitting here like, this is going to be bad, this is going to be bad, this is going to be bad. But the VIX made its 2022 intraday high in January and it never went higher for the rest of the year.

[00:14:59] So, you know, I think a lot of times our emotions as, you know, people living through, you know, the situation, it doesn't reflect in price action. Yeah, so the idea is basically as more and more people are hedging a specific event, the bar keeps going

[00:15:15] up, that that event has to get over. So at a certain level of hedging, it doesn't really matter how bad the event is. Like we've hedged like the worst case scenario for some of these things. Yeah, and that's 100% right. And so, you know, the VIX went

[00:15:28] to 20 on Friday's close right in that neighborhood was a significant move. People were getting very concerned about, you know, that rise in VIX and our point, we put it on Twitter, you know, just that look, you know, it's an awful situation. Doesn't mean the VIX should be at 20,

[00:15:46] right? Doesn't mean you should be paying up for poor value. And then today the VIX is back down to, you know, 17s in the S&P rally one and a half percent because all that ball comes off and the market just rallies right back.

[00:15:55] Right. And so I think when you understand some of these options mechanics, you can understand a little better kind of what's happening in the supply and demand of hedging. And one other point is, you know, in 2020, the other thing that got a lot of people was that volatility

[00:16:09] never really spiked right in the way that a lot of people thought it would. The market made new lows and volatility never spiked. And what a lot of that was going to touch on this presentation is people bought puts and puts never performed like puts and

[00:16:21] owning volatility never really paid off in 2022. And there's a lot of arguments for why that is I think the best one that people just sold stocks, right? Rates are going higher. I'm just selling stocks. I'm not going to hedge these. I'm not going to buy put protection.

[00:16:32] I'm just going to sell these positions. And you see some of that reflected now, which I think is really quite interesting and maybe interesting for traders of a longer term perspective because you can take advantage of some of the lower priced volatility, I think, to play

[00:16:48] some of the bounces in the market. Yeah. And looking at slide eight, I got a little ahead of us there, but looking at slide eight, it's a good example, I think of some of the impact. And I think on here you have the performance of the

[00:16:58] S&P 500, but you also have the X's or all the options expirations. And you're yeah, go ahead. So real quick, because we skipped over this, the way that the cycle sort of works and this works on a monthly basis, but also somewhat

[00:17:11] on a quarterly basis, a lot of big institutions put quarterly positions on rather than monthly. And so essentially what you have is on X ox's expiration, which is approaching on Friday, people's positions start to build in single stocks or in equities. And as price moves a little bit

[00:17:26] throughout the month, the options positions build even larger and you get zero DT piling on there short dated options positions. And that starts to reinforce the position. So if you look at the S&P now as we're going to talk about a minute,

[00:17:37] there's a lot of positions at 4300 on the bottom on the downside of 4400 to the upside in the S&P and gamma in the hedging flow because of the way that options decay, gamma starts to increase at these positions, the hedging flow starts to increase at the

[00:17:51] positions and you end up getting kind of this pinning effect. And that works both to the upside and the downside. And so what happens is like a clock as we kind of tick past the days and the weeks, these positions build into expiration. And then an

[00:18:03] expiration, all the positions expire or a big chunk of positions expire and that releases the market or releases the stock from its current position or from its current behavior. And again, we'll touch on this to examine this. So if you're a long term investor, you want a

[00:18:18] bunch of calls or if you know about your stock, right? You're worried that stocks going to go down when can I hedge this options expiration is very interesting. A lot of stocks will be under pressure because of put flows and that pressure will go away during options

[00:18:30] expiration. And that leaves us into this chart here where look, not every options expiration is this giant meaningful thing, right? But what you see here is that in December of 2018, it marked the low, right? The Mnuchin low, if you remember back to December 2018, the day after options

[00:18:45] expiration, most famous one March of 2020, the market lows the day after options expiration. June of last year, low is the options expiration for June. Those are the quarterly expiration. So those tend to matter more. So a lot of times these options expiration, when they have

[00:18:58] large positions can really offer turning points that are valuable on a range of time frames, right? Not just to the day trader but also to people with even yearly, you know, year long positions or multi year positions. So in general, if we have an event that's coming up

[00:19:17] on the horizon and people start buying a lot of puts, the initial reaction to that, right is dealers are going to have to sell the underlying. So it's going to drive that down, right? But as we get to expiration, if we don't get the major move, the

[00:19:28] value of those is going down. So the dealers have to reverse what they're doing. Is that the general idea? Yeah, that's exactly right. So you know, if you look at the flows here, what I've done is I mapped out the size of the delta for

[00:19:41] spiders, ideoleum cues, you know, the big index one. And so he's here and is called Delta is in orange and put Delta is in blue. What I want you to sort of notice is one the sides of these bars, but also the balance between

[00:19:53] puts and calls. This is a pretty balanced expiration, meaning the size of the blue put bars roughly the size of the orange call bar. So you know, there's not a there's not a big dynamic between Hey, this is the market that's crashing and puts are really

[00:20:04] dominating a value versus calls. And to what you're saying before, if you have a big imbalance, you have the market either moving because of call positions or moving just because of put positions, when those positions are removed, the hedging flows associated with those positions are

[00:20:18] also removed. And they're actually covered in a lot of times. And that's why I believe that a lot of times in kind of extreme moments like March of 2020, all of these put positions go away and all the hedges associated with those positions are covered. And

[00:20:32] that can create the balance in the market. And oftentimes that balance correlates with volatility shifting in a rather violent way. And this is the Vanna trade we often talk about where the VIX doesn't understand this options expiration, the VIX doesn't price that in

[00:20:45] but the VIX gets smacked as soon as the market starts to rally off of options expiration, right? And when the VIX goes down, that tends to push the market higher. And the similarly when the VIX starts to jump, but the market gets sold off or

[00:20:58] pressured down. And so, you know, all these ideas are intertwined, but they can be triggered by positional events like an options expiration. So if I was thinking about, I mean, as you said before, we can't really predict, you know, for sure whether these things

[00:21:10] are going to be turning points or anything like that. But in situations where the odds were the highest, would I want something where let's say the market has run up a ton and most of the expiring interest is calls basically. So the combination of those two

[00:21:22] things would make it more likely I get a reversal. Is that right? When you have when you have an imbalance in positioning, a lot of calls or a lot of puts and that goes for a single stock name or the index flows, that imbalance

[00:21:34] is a signal that will often reverse or the markets do for a change of tone. Some of that can be shorter term, you know, some of it can be longer turned depending on the situation you're looking at. You know, you have extremes, right? March of 2020 such an extreme

[00:21:47] January, excuse me, June of last year was an extreme September of this year was extreme. So you had these times where, you know, the options flows are magnified and they matter more and that can go for single stocks as well. A couple of these we're going

[00:21:59] to talk about. Because the other side of the equation is how much hedging flow is there? How big are these options positions? That could be tough to assess if you don't have the right tools. But yeah, you may look and say, oh, there's a ton of calls

[00:22:09] here, but maybe it's 100 lot of calls. And so even there's big big imbalance is just not enough positions to actually matter, right? So you do have to weigh those positions a little bit to see how impactful they may be. And slide 10 you kind of you're we're seeing

[00:22:22] evidence of what you alluded to before this idea of you know, 4300 and 4500. So can you talk about that a little bit? Yeah, sure. So in between these two, what you'll see here is if you're looking at this chart is there's a ton of position balance

[00:22:33] position the SBV over at 4300 we said that's our floor into into Wednesday and I'll explain Wednesday for you. And then the biggest bar smack in the middle here at 4400. We said that through Friday's options expiration, we think that's going to be high of the market. And

[00:22:49] then the other kind of notable bar here is way up at 4500. And what happens above 4500 is call positions, which is the orange bar, they'll start to dwindle. And so far every time we've gotten in this 4500 position, you could see the call positions stop building. It's kind of

[00:23:03] like the options markets like we're not interested above there, right? We're willing to pay up to 4500. But then the flow really starts to subside. And that's happened a couple times this year. And it seems to think I make the argument that could be, you know, the case

[00:23:19] here if we start to rally again, if you see those positions build, we call this our call wall. Above 4500, these call walls start to build above that. It's a sign that the options markets in believer or is giving weight to the fact that the market could

[00:23:31] rally through it. But right now, you know, this 4500 area is I think something that out of October expiration, you want to watch it into November as a possible high 4400 for Friday. And then if you break 4300 of the downside, what you'll notice is that it mainly

[00:23:48] put positions, right? It's mainly the blue bars are larger. And so what happens if we break 4300, that's an area where the S&P could start the volatility could really start to increase. So if you think about the VIX at 20, right, that implies that the S&P should move,

[00:24:05] you know, one and a quarter percent every day, right? But if you look at realized volatility, which the market is actually moving, it's only moving at about 80 basis points a day. So there's this big spread between what the VIX thinks the market's going

[00:24:17] to do and what the S&P is actually doing. And so if we break 4300, we think that the S&P movement actually starts to catch up to that VIX level, right? Then you actually start to feel that volatility increase. And it's because it's predominantly put positions below 4300.

[00:24:31] Yeah, you mentioned low realized volatility and the next slide shows that. And that's a question I've had, I know from the outside is we've had so much stuff going on in the market that you think would have driven tons of volatility over the past

[00:24:41] couple of years. And we really haven't seen the high volatility that much. So I mean, is the answer to that in the options market? I think 100% two things one, my gut, even though it doesn't really show in the data and we see this on a daily

[00:24:56] basis is that the positions in the market, some of this is short dated options. And we could talk about zero DT if you want. And the way that the flows are coming in, it suppresses volatility. And we have a model that measures

[00:25:13] the one day of volatility as we show at the top here. And that model existed before zero DT still seems to predict the market pretty well now. And what's interesting about it is that even though the VIX is at 20 and there's always angst and if people think the

[00:25:25] market's about to fall off the face of the earth, the daily moves has actually been pretty quiet in the S&P 500. And you can see that in this green line is one month S&P volatility right now it's only about 12.5%. And so if you compare that

[00:25:38] number to the VIX and you compare that spread, that tells you kind of a much volatility premiums in the market. And so, you know, something like Vana, you know our Vana flows large or small or Vana impactful or not. And if you see that

[00:25:48] spread widen out, you know, six, seven, eight points. Well, let's tell you there's a lot of, you know, Vana in the market or Vana flows kind of as a as a headline could maybe matter. And so what the point of this is that even

[00:26:00] though the market has been selling off the S&P, volatility has not been popping. Right? It has not really gone crazy where the VIX has gone over 20 and there's been a lot of fear and panic in the market. And we haven't seen the options positioning ready to

[00:26:13] support that high level of volatility. And I would actually make the argument that I don't think we're going to see it this year. I think we could see VIX test 20 a couple of times. I think the market could sell off 5%, right? But you're not

[00:26:26] going to see that volatility spike. And that's because I don't see the put demand really materialized. I think people have backed away from wanting to own puts as a hedge. I think that people just sell stock now because rates are changing, you know, the justification for owning a

[00:26:42] stock. So like I don't want to own, you know, like Coca-Cola anymore because of Osempic is one of the examples here. So there's all these different reasons, but owning puts as a way to protect your portfolio has not become a profitable scenario by and large. That

[00:26:57] would change if credit markets start to crack or you start to get unknown unknowns. So if you think about back to the bank crisis in March, people knew there was frown banks, right? You just didn't know which bank there was all these kind of unknowns that were

[00:27:10] percolating and you could point to it. And in war, in a way, it could be that scenario too, right? Is Iran going to join or are these other forces? Or could this slip into be like a World War 3 scenario and be really bad for everybody? You know, that

[00:27:21] could present that on that well, okay, there is this war, not something yet. And how do I hedge that unknown, right? And the credit credit events are that type of situation. But one of the things we're talking about here are yields coming down. There's just a

[00:27:33] lot of reasons to think that that scenario is not yet on the tape. Can you the next slide talks about SKU, which is something, you know, I didn't totally understood the concept, but I didn't totally understand it before I started following a lot of you guys.

[00:27:46] So can you talk about what SKU is and then what we're seeing in this chart? Yeah, I thought this was interesting because this is a snapshot from Friday. I believe the SKU getting pounded today because the market's rallying. There's two SKUs. There's the

[00:27:57] SKU index from the SIBO SKUW. And that looks at the price of out of the money options relative to at the money options. And what that's basically telling you is whether those out of the money options are gaining in value relatively at the money.

[00:28:09] And the value of that is saying people are hedging an a volatile event, right? I'm going to buy out of the money calls or puts if I think the market's about to move a lot. And it could be a little bit confusing to SIBO

[00:28:20] because the SIBO includes calls and puts. If you look at the S DEX, this is the nation's SKU index, which SDE, he only measures puts out of the money puts versus out the money puts. And the idea there is simply look, people are worried that

[00:28:34] there's going to be a tail risk event, five to 10% drop in the market, right? Because of escalation in war or whatever it may be. I'm going to buy out of the money puts to hedge myself. If I want to get long volatility, I got to own

[00:28:45] out of the money puts. And so when this SDEX spikes, it's telling you that people are tail hedging, right? They're hedging precipitous drop or what they're worried about may be precipitous drop in the market. So this is really just telling you that downside

[00:28:58] demand is there and it's real. Sometimes you see the VIX spike, for example, but you won't see SKU spike. And what that's telling you is kind of at the money demand, at the money ball is picking up. Usually that's a reflection of the markets just moving more,

[00:29:09] but maybe SKU isn't popping off, which tells us that there's not this out of the out of the out of the money demand for put options, right? So it's giving you a view into behaviors a little bit. And so when SKU spikes like this again,

[00:29:21] it's telling you that there is real fear there. There is demand for these out of the money puts people are concerned about something. It's not something that's more maybe technically driven or positionally driven, right? It's showing us there is demand. And not only that, when

[00:29:35] this SKU gets low, very low, and you can see there's a couple periods here where the SKU drops a lot, I could be telling you that volatility is maybe getting too cheap, right? Because there's two sides of the equation always there's people are paying too

[00:29:45] much or people aren't giving enough respect out of the money options prices. And that can often be a sign that, hey, the market is too complacent here. They all want to buy some hedges, right? Because the market is underpricing large moves. I'm wondering if SKU

[00:29:57] predicted at all. So in other words, I would think on one hand, like if people are buying tons of way out of the money protection on the downside, that could be a sign something's bad is about to happen. But we also kind of learned that that

[00:30:05] eventually, you know, ends up people get too crazy and they overpay for that downside protection and it becomes an opportunity in the upside. So is this at all predictive of like what happens in the future? I think you can take some of these major lows that you've

[00:30:17] seen over time here. And, you know, it appears there is kind of a lower bound in this metric as you can see. And I think it's interesting or useful from that. I don't think in and of itself, you can use it as a, you know,

[00:30:29] it could be a variable, so to speak, in your into a strategy, but I don't think on and of itself, you could use it as a strategy. So it's a factor. And to the upside, it's I think a little bit less conclusive right because there's not

[00:30:41] there's not really an upper bound to this as there is such a lower bound. I mean, the lower bound is very clear, right? And that's because if you think about it, the market realize well can only go so low, right? There's a there's

[00:30:51] a floor, the market's going to move, that's gonna move at least 10 or 20 points a day, right? If you start betting that the markets are gonna move less than 10 or 20 points a day, you're probably gonna lose. It doesn't take much like the market can move up 50 bips

[00:31:05] right as well as down 50 bips. So that creates this this lower bound of volatility, which is what is reflected in this skew index hitting like 51 ish right or 50 on the chart. Whereas volatility theory could go to a million to the upside, right? So that's what

[00:31:21] makes it harder to use as a bottoming predictor, right? So you want to think about the skew index or this s dex at 50 as a top as this thing that maybe volatility has hit its lows, right? And the market's kind of topping out. How about this next slide

[00:31:36] here, you're talking about the S&P SPX variance premium and a lot of people probably won't know what that is. So can you start about what that is and what we're seeing here? Yeah, absolutely. So variance is really just another word for volatility and this comes

[00:31:48] from a book by Johansson Claire. He calls it the variance premium and you know, he's a great options educator and the market maker and you know, so props in for this. And what it basically shows you is the VIX minus one month S&P realized volatility. So just

[00:32:04] a little bit earlier here, we showed where that slide go one month realized ball right 12.5 for the S&P 500 excuse me. And so this is taking the one month VIX, the VIX which measures one month options on a rolling basis, subtracts that one month S&P realized ball.

[00:32:22] And when this spread or this level hits this upper bound kind of around the 90th percentile here, that's telling us that there's a big volatility premium. And you can see it's very small here, but you can see that spike right this last spike. That's because on Thursday

[00:32:37] the VIX was much lower compared to the S&P 500 then also the VIX got bit up because everyone was worried about the war right on Friday. So VIX went up four or five points and that spread you can see wind out when that spread winds out.

[00:32:49] That's telling you that people are paying up for options and there's not a lot of realized volatility. So there's there's this extra amount of premium, which in theory makes it juicier for volatility sellers to come in and short right? You know, sell VIX features under that or

[00:33:01] some people like to sell VXX or those inverse spreads is right. It's only that volatility might be a little bit rich. And oftentimes these big spikes are due to events like you mentioned, the Biden Trump election or you know, wars are a common one.

[00:33:15] CPI numbers started to get kind of a volatility premium when those were late last year that that's all that matter was the CPI and that would get get the volatility premium bit up to the downside here. The same thing can work where there's not enough volatility

[00:33:30] premium baked into the market right? Maybe the VIX is at 10 and realize vol is at nine and you know, there's it's the juice has been squeezed out that volatility premiums when squeezed out and that spread is likely to widen because there's not really any worse volatility to go

[00:33:44] right? It's that volatility lower bound we're just talking about. And so you can monitor this spread on several different time frames and I think it's very valuable as a risk parameter, right? If we're getting down towards the bottom 10 percentile here and you're long, a lot of

[00:33:59] equities, well, maybe you want to add some put protection to your portfolio because puts are cheap, but also there's not a whole lot of places for volatility to go right? So that may benefit me as a as a timing indicator for my portfolio for for adding hedges.

[00:34:13] So, conversely, and then conversely, if we're up around this top line and I own put protection, maybe want to roll it out or maybe want to adjust there may be a good time to add some equity exposure because maybe this premium is telling me that the markets

[00:34:23] do for a rally. And that thing we see in 2020 was just basically because realized volatility went crazy. Yeah. So the well, this is so you know, you hit options, expiration in March of 2020, right? All these puts get wiped out. The Fed actually had implemented a program, ironically

[00:34:40] at that same time, I think it was the Monday or Tuesday following, right? So you had all these forces to make the market rip. And so realized volatility is a 30 month 30 day or 20 day of any measure rolling window. So it takes a long time. It took 20 days for

[00:34:53] that March sell off to come out of that rolling window. However, what happens is the VIX collapses immediately as soon as the market starts to rally and the Fed says, hey, we got your back VIX drops precipitously. But that rolling realize volatility windows, you know,

[00:35:07] still got the big sell-offs in it, right? So it takes a little while for it to come out. One of the things we want to do on this and we're going to, and every episode we are going to talk about the S&P 500 and we're

[00:35:15] going to do some educational stuff like we did. But we also want to talk about some other things you're seeing in areas outside of the S&P 500. And one of the most interesting things we've been seeing recently is as much as there

[00:35:23] has not been a lot of that volatility S&P 500. There's been tons of volatility in rates, particularly in the long term rates. So you've got this chart of yields driving equity of all the VIX versus the 10 years. So can you talk about that a little bit?

[00:35:34] I'm going to first preface all this by saying, I stay out of the macro pool. I don't envy people have to wade through that market right now. So, you know, I'm not here to offer a view on rates. I'm here to offer a view on

[00:35:47] how the options market seems to be reacting to rates. So don't take anything here as a forecast on rates. And then yell at me later. But what you see here is this is a chart over the last, you know, two, three weeks. And it's the 10 year yield

[00:36:00] versus the VIX and the two are moving right now in lockstep because rates have become such a focus and that was amplified really kind of in the end of September and over the last couple of weeks where, you know, the more rates, specifically as the 10 year will

[00:36:13] go up, you would see the VIX spike and the two would move in correlation. And the issue is here that, you know, there's a bunch of reasons to watch this and obviously we all know that higher rates now are bad for equities.

[00:36:25] But the fact that the two are so linked right now is very interesting to me. And it forces somebody like me as an officer trader start watching rates and pay attention to these dates where, you know, rates will get repriced because of CPI or, you know,

[00:36:38] whatever, whatever other data points may come along. And so as equity traders or option traders were all sort of, you know, just rates traders in disguise at the moment. But where these things can decouple, I would say is that if rates just stop

[00:36:53] going up, they can stay flat or they can come down and either snare ball likely to come down right, the VIX is likely to decouple. And I think that would be a real risk on indicator for the market when this decoupling takes place.

[00:37:08] Threatened it to couple a little bit, you could argue it's decoupling a little bit over these last couple of days. I mean, you know, day to day doesn't really matter. This is a little bit of a longer term view. I think vol is getting crushed.

[00:37:17] I would just say also because we have a big VIX expiration on Wednesday and I think that helps to suppress volatility a little bit. So after this Wednesday, you know, you can see these two resink. I mean, the rates have climbed a little bit over

[00:37:28] his last few days. So this is a really key thing to watch, even if you're an options trader and equities only, you got to be aware of rates. But again, the signal when I think the VIX and race to couple, I think

[00:37:39] would be a real risk on, you know, metric to watch. And that could happen in the end of year. I'm just curious is what we're seeing right now the exception rather than the rule? Like if I looked at a really, really long term chart of this,

[00:37:49] would they be decoupled more than they're coupled like this? I'll decoupled for sure. OK. You know, most of us and I'm 43, most of us have not seen interest rate environment like this. Right. This is all new to us. You can back test it all

[00:38:01] you want. But, you know, after 2008 rates have only gone one direction, right? And so, you know, rates rising at this rate and this level of inflation, all these things, a lot of people have never seen anything like this before. And so these phenomenons, a

[00:38:16] lot of them are new. And, you know, the ramifications of them have to be kind of weighed out in real time. And so, you know, it is something that you have to adjust to. And it is different. Yeah. So on the next slide, you're

[00:38:31] looking at some things that would be rate sensitive. You're looking at XLU, TLT, KRE and ARC. You're kind of looking at what they've done here as rates have gone up. Yeah. And since August, these things have all been pummeled. I mean, you have regional banks

[00:38:42] which have been reporting earnings over the last today like Schwab was up. JP Morgan's obviously on a regional bank, but they kind of said everything was OK. So they're catching a little bit of a bid there, which is a good sign. But utilities have been crushed. TLTs

[00:38:53] have been crushed. That's the long bound ETF. And then ARC, which is obviously very sensitive to rates down 22% of the dollar. These these names are getting just smoked. And again, I'm not here to offer you an analysis on whether rates are going to change

[00:39:06] and these are going to rally. What I'm going to show you is how what the options market is telling you about the positions and why it may matter to you as a large term investor. So I think you get into that in the next slide here with TLT.

[00:39:17] Yeah. So let's look at TLT, which is again the long term US bond. And what you can see, the little tough to show, but I want to show a very long term chart, call volume and TLT has really spiked. It's record call volume.

[00:39:31] It's record open interest in TLT calls and put volumes. They're elevated, but call volumes are in blue here. They're significantly higher. And so what's happened is as TLTs come out of this 87 to 85 level, people are betting and looking for exposure to bet that there

[00:39:47] could be a rally at rates because of a pause or whatever it may be. The calls offer a lot of upside convexity in that situation. Calls, I would say have gotten a little bit rich. And so actually I did a video this morning, my buddy Imran,

[00:40:01] when we suggested buy right position because call implied balls got a little bit high. That's become a little bit of a crowded trade. And one thing I want to emphasize here is that in no way do I think hedging flows from TLT can

[00:40:13] work back into the long bond market and move it. I mean bonds are so much larger than the TLT call option spaces. Not like this is a meme stock. But from a sentiment perspective, I think it's fascinating. People are trying to buy this dip.

[00:40:25] This is telling me that there's some conviction coming into the market that people don't think long bonds are going to, I would argue, go go much higher rate. I don't know if that's right or wrong. It's simply what the data is telling me.

[00:40:37] Yeah, so I think to your point, the percentage of options flows like in something like the long term bond market, you know, is a lot lower than it is in something like the equity market. 100 percent. You look at Nvidia just as an example. We could have, you know,

[00:40:51] $300 million of Delta's trade in Nvidia in a single day. And when you weigh that versus the market cap of video, it's huge, right? But the bond market is just unbelievably massive and TLTs. This is a lot of options flow. You know, you could have 10, 20, 30 million dollars of Delta's

[00:41:09] hedging pressure on options flow, but that's not going to change the. That's not going to have any impact on long term bonds. It can have an impact on implied volatility and what dealer are willing to say, I'm going to sell you this call for, I think.

[00:41:22] But, you know, we're not I'm not offering this suggestion that there's so much flow into TLT calls that we're going to change long term rates like, you know, I don't think I want to confuse that. I just want to make sure I'm clear.

[00:41:35] So yeah, so in this next slide, you're getting into TLT a little bit more. Can you talk about what you've shown there? Yeah. So there's two things to notice here. I'm going to talk about the top left first. I think this is the most

[00:41:43] insightful thing for a longer term investor. Just as we see calls pouring in the market, what we did here is we're measuring gamma by strike and the last bar that I might cursor over here again, calls and puts are fairly even, which is one thing to note.

[00:41:58] But below 85, there's hardly any put positions. So if you were going to try to bet that rates were going to go higher in the long end, you couldn't really trade bonds directly. You didn't want to. You trade you buy TLT puts as a way to express that downside.

[00:42:14] People aren't doing it. They're not betting that we're going down below 85, right? Doesn't mean it's not going to happen. It's just there's no put positions out there. And you can see the calls in yours bars are fairly stacked above. So I think that's extremely interesting from a

[00:42:26] sentiment perspective. Not only people are laying to call, there's really not any bets that long term rates are set to go or change that much more because obviously the rates that go up TLT will go down. The second thing is if you look at on the bottom right

[00:42:38] here, which I don't think is interesting, it's skew. This is our measure of skew we called our risk reversal, which is the light blue line. And what that is showing us is what is the price of a put relative to a call? And so even though you've had

[00:42:49] these kind of elevated call volumes, right? We're not seeing call implied volatility really raise. And if call implied volatility or demand was really picking up on the long side, then you would see this risk reversal metric kind of spike. So even though we're getting

[00:43:04] these long term calls that are coming into the market, you can make the case that it's not reflecting necessarily is not demand is not yet reflecting in kind of dealer positioning and the cost of actual call options, which is suggesting that some of these calls that are later

[00:43:20] in the market are getting sold rather than necessarily puts being bought. I think there's two different trades, right? I could sell a call and if the market goes down, the call very quickly goes to zero and I collect my premium. It's also an expression.

[00:43:32] I don't think that rates are set to pop a whole lot yet. So what you have here in summary is people aren't betting that TLT is about to go down below 85, right? They are starting to bet that rates are going to rally or TLT excuse me, that

[00:43:45] TLT is going to rally that rates may pause. And that from a sentiment perspective, I think it is very interesting in the way that things are positioned. Yeah, it's interesting. You know, neither you or I are experts in the bond market, but it is interesting like when we

[00:43:58] see this huge period we've seen where we had really low rates, it's almost like we're so programmed with that that like as rates go up here, people want to buy these call options believing we're going to go back to at least lower rates. Like we're going to

[00:44:11] get that need reversion. I don't know what that tells us about whether we're going to get it or not, but it's just interesting to me and we've all been programmed like in this world of low rates and now we're getting this world of

[00:44:18] high rates and we seem to think they're going back down. Yeah, and if you if you thought that there was going to be a significant against spike in rates, you would express that through TLT and you could see that there are times in this

[00:44:34] light blue bar where, you know, the cost of calls rolled that puts really jump like there was this time where people are like, oh, rates are going to spike here, rates are going to spike here. I think we're done or excuse me, TLT is going to spike

[00:44:44] here. I think rates are going to drop and that's what the higher blue bars or blue lives was chart expressing. And so it's very interesting to me with TLT finally hit 85. It's like the actual call values have declined even though call volumes are kind of

[00:44:57] increasing. It's sort of like the market is kind of exhausted here. Like people are trading a lot of these calls, but there doesn't seem to be that pricing impact yet. And so, you know, that exhaustion, the fact that this blue line isn't spiking is almost telling me that

[00:45:13] people have sort of lost faith a little bit, right? Like throwing in the towel a little bit. Like I'm not betting this is going to be lower. But that could be a sign of me again that that we've maybe maxed out on rates in the short term.

[00:45:26] So in the next two slides, you're looking at the same exact two charts for your looking them for XLU instead of TLT. So are you seeing similar things there? Yeah, XLU has gotten pounded. There's more puts over the last couple of, you know, early in October, which is

[00:45:39] with the red line reflects, right? But as XLU hit the 55 area, then call volumes popped. And you can see these are record call lines and record put volumes. And XLU has bounced since we kind of put this slide together, you know, towards the 60 level.

[00:45:53] And if you look at the positioning, it's very similar to TLT in that there are hardly any positions below 55 and XLU. It's kind of like that. We've established that that is the bottom. You know, you do have this bar here at 50 and we were at the 55 level.

[00:46:09] But, you know, the put positioning, which you can really see by the curve of this blue line here really dried up, right? And so, you know, yes, people wanted to sell utilities and this kind of thing. But the bet, the explicit bet in the options land that

[00:46:21] this was going to drive a lot has really dried up. And I think because this is a rate sensitive instrument, it sort of syncs with the idea of TLT that look, this stuff has gotten very stretched. And at least in the short term, the interest in betting

[00:46:34] that there's going to be another leg down has really dried up. And so again, if you're a longer term investor, I think these are really interesting signals, right? Because these are flows and moves and names to multi year lows and off in many cases. And the man, right?

[00:46:50] That sentiment perspective drying up, I think is very interesting. So I want to skip the slide 24. And you know, we can't we can't do a podcast without talking about the Mag 7. And this this always like it always changes, you know, it was the thing that it was the

[00:47:01] fan mag, then it's the Mag 7. Like I can't keep track of what it is. But apparently this is what it is now. But what are you seeing in that area? Yes. So Mag 7, those are the magnificent seven that's driving everything. For like a breadth indicators

[00:47:14] all the like, what you see is that, you know, this is the engine of the market. And there's tons of studies about that I'm sure ones aware. What I think is really interesting is this index here is the MGC, which is the Vanguard, I believe is the

[00:47:26] equally related Magnet since seven index and it it peaked in August. It made another attempt in September. So peaked in August at 162 this particular ETF. And it's currently at 155. And what I think is interesting from that, if you're looking at long term perspective is there's a lot of

[00:47:42] options positioning in the October expiration for this. There's a lot of call positioning. And this was taken on Friday morning when all these names started to rally. This is what we call our fixed strike ball dashboard. And there's three stocks of the seven that I offer here

[00:47:56] just from screen real estate I have an NVIDIA Apple and Microsoft. And what you'll notice here is we have expiration on the Y axis. And then on the X axis is the strikes all the available strikes. This is essentially giving you a matrix or a grid of implied

[00:48:09] volatility for these names. And it's the change in implied volatility over from 10 to two essentially last Friday. Right. So how much did implied volatility change even though these names have all rallied right here. And so what you see is that these names as they all

[00:48:29] approached kind of multi-year highs right now kind of write a little bit. The fact that you're seeing all these upside areas turn red right some of the very bright red is telling us that people are selling calls as these stocks are rallying. So even though you have let's

[00:48:44] say the NVIDIA rallying to new highs right a four fifty or so the fact that these areas in here are read for near term expirations right November expiration etc. tells that the implied volatility of those strikes are coming down. That happens when people are generally are selling calls

[00:49:00] right that's that means the implied volatility of these names drop because investors are selling options the value of those options are going down that means implied volatility is going down and you're seeing red. So that's telling me informing me that the options market had

[00:49:13] been selling into the strength of the magnificent seven as it has rallied to these recent kind of you know not too far off of near term highs. So if I was a long term investor in these baskets I too would maybe want to consider selling calls of

[00:49:29] giving the opportunity or sport being aware of this fact that the options market is not really looking to bid up these names in these real time highs if they are recent highs they were then you would see a lot more green on this

[00:49:41] screen as opposed to these kind of pockets of red that I hope we're clear in these graphs. So yeah the final section we did here was really interesting because I haven't been following the OZ epic thing very much and I didn't even know what the word came

[00:49:53] from so you actually you actually found that so I looked it up understand this absolutely no get a little bit dry so here's your here is your little tip there for the day the name of the epic comes from the word OZ which is the fictional land

[00:50:07] in the Wizard of Oz so the idea is that OZ epic is meant to evoke sense and wonder and possibility the possibility of you lose a lot of weight. So that's what the name OZ epic means I just thought that was kind of interesting

[00:50:19] and you know Novartis and Eli Lilly I think have been the beneficiaries of these not a huge options name Novartis but what you can see is that there's been tremendous rally in the stock and Walmart came out and said look this is we think this

[00:50:32] is affecting our sales of some of you know the garbage food that we offer and so what you see here is from August into recent you know couple of days and weeks and McDonald's and some of these other names have some other situations

[00:50:44] going on so you know I'm being a little coy with the OZ epic trade here but these names are getting crushed right McDonald's Coca-Cola Pepsi this is Hershey in green right these stocks are down significantly from August highs and so I call this the

[00:51:00] OZ epic trade just because it seems like you know there's this inverse correlation here and again I'm only looking at the options market not not the underlying data but what we find very interesting here just like in Coca-Cola just like in TLT and McDonald's

[00:51:12] as these stocks are making some of them significant lows put interest is now really dried up right and we're not seeing a big demand and put options and so implied volatility is for these names are actually pretty low which tells me that they were sold because of the

[00:51:27] OZ epic trader for whatever other reason may go on maybe the Magnificent 7 is sucking a lot of this money my way but the options market in a lot of these names have stopped betting sorry about that have stopped betting that these names are going to go significantly lower

[00:51:41] and what's interesting from an options perspective is maybe think these these moves are overdone because implied fall has not really reacted it's actually pretty cheap to buy calls to bet on rallies back or recoveries and some of these names and I think you know for longer terms

[00:51:56] investors leaps could be very interesting here maybe I want to stick your toe in the water but this is a great situation I think where you can use call exposure in these names to bet on upside because that implied volatility has been pretty cheap despite the

[00:52:07] fact that stocks crash generally the stocks crash implied ball goes up and then it tells you that you don't want to buy the options right because too expensive so you know I think that's really an interesting situation and I just wanted to show this chart of XLP which

[00:52:21] is consumer stable ETF there's not a lot of put demand to my point here which is the red line what you see as a spike in calls and what's interesting is if you just quickly look at this the spike in calls which is the

[00:52:30] blue bar is associated with a lot of short term lows some even significant lows in XLP right which is reflected in a lot of these consumer stable names so you know the spike in call activity is kind of a signal here that hey maybe we do have

[00:52:47] maybe we can make the case for a short term balance in the ozempic online trade I'll just call it as a way to factorize it. What's funny is I don't know if it's been true of you guys but if I was existing only in the forehand house

[00:52:57] I'd be buying extreme call options on the sugary the sugary staples or whatever they're called because my kids that's pretty much all they're eating so I guess the market is disagreeing with me. Yeah I would say it's true I mean it's pretty miraculous what's happening and I know

[00:53:10] there's labor issues with McDonald's and some other things but a lot of these sugary names are getting crushed and you know I think it's been a there's just there's some interesting you know Twitter feeds out there that put on these spread trades and different

[00:53:20] things around these names and I just think that you know just like you could argue rates maybe got a little too stretched there were some signs that you know just just emotions right or the VIX got too hot on Friday I think some of this could be so

[00:53:33] much Mag 7 pulling you know money away the Osepid trade compounds it and maybe valuations are getting interesting in some of these things and you're seeing things like you know I don't know if Dollar General or Dollar Store is in XLP or not but some of these names

[00:53:45] that I think are maybe possibly linked to this are starting to bounce you know kind of sharply here and and the options market spike and call volume is an interesting sentiment and a care. Thanks Brent for sharing all this great you know information

[00:54:00] with us I think a lot of the stuff that you've pulled is obviously from your your premium research that you know subscribers pay a lot of money for so you know you've been generous and we'll do this in future episodes to you know highlight the content highlight the

[00:54:13] trends and things that you're seeing in the options markets to help investors and also traders hopefully make better you know decisions and make more profitable decisions and manage risk more appropriately and better so if anyone has any feedback we're all ears if you have any questions

[00:54:33] specifically for Brent or Jack and I feel free to get in touch with us and then we'll try to as we mentioned at the outset we'll try to do these monthly and I would highly encourage you know there was a lot of great but in-depth information

[00:54:48] that Brett shared with us so definitely reference the visuals because that's how you're going to get I think the most out of the information that was shared today again you can go over to our YouTube channel or you can download using the link in the

[00:55:01] description and download the PDF so thanks everyone for checking this first episode of opx out and we'll see you next time This is Justin again. Thanks so much for tuning into this episode. If you found this discussion interesting and valuable please subscribe in either

[00:55:17] iTunes or on YouTube or leave a review or a comment. We appreciate no information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of clients of Lydia Carroll.