Lessons From 24 Market Experts | What We Learned From the 12 Hour PNL For a Purpose Livestream

[00:00:00] Welcome to Two Quants and a Financial Planner, where we bridge the worlds of investing and

[00:00:03] financial planning to help investors achieve their long term goals. Join Matt Zeigler,

[00:00:06] Jack Forehand and me, Justin Carbonneau as we cover a wide range of investing and planning

[00:00:09] topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve

[00:00:13] the best outcomes in our financial lives. Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand are

[00:00:17] principals at Volidia Capital Management. Matt Zeigler is managing director at Sunpoint

[00:00:20] Investments. The opinions expressed in this podcast do not necessarily reflect the

[00:00:23] opinions of Volidia Capital or Sunpoint Investments. No information on this podcast

[00:00:27] should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be

[00:00:30] holdings of clients of Volidia Capital or Sunpoint Investments.

[00:00:33] Well, we all survived the Tuesday podcast marathon where we did, and I did probably

[00:00:44] the least of it, but we did 12 hours of podcasting for a purpose. The event was

[00:00:50] P&L for a purpose hosted by, I guess put on by XS Returns and Spot Gamma. Jack,

[00:01:01] Matt and I and Brent Cachuba from Spot Gamma were sort of the hosts and we interviewed

[00:01:06] for people that maybe haven't seen it. We interviewed over a 12 hour period, 24 different

[00:01:13] guests on a wide range of topics. Macro investing, quantitative investing, value

[00:01:18] investing, tech investing, technical analysis and a bunch of other sort of market and maybe

[00:01:25] some even non-market related stuff. And I just want to compliment Jack, you on

[00:01:32] sort of leading the charge here and all your hard work and organization and

[00:01:36] just effort that went into making the event like really, really good. And what I want to

[00:01:41] say is there was a lot of failure. We talk about failure points a lot in investing, right?

[00:01:47] There's a lot of different ways you can sort of fail and fall down. And I think with this event,

[00:01:51] there was potentially a lot of different failure points everywhere from people not showing up,

[00:01:58] technology not working and actually failure points that happened with the feed going down

[00:02:02] and Jack having to do the presentation when we had a race on and he's like getting the

[00:02:07] feedback up and doing the presentation. So anyways, I just think it's just a

[00:02:13] testament and effort to how the event went to just what hard work can do. So great job to

[00:02:19] you seriously. I know a lot of people saw it that way. Thank you very much. And definitely

[00:02:23] the team at SpotGamma as well, they did a ton of work behind the scenes. There were a lot

[00:02:28] of people involved there. They built the website. They did just as much as I did as we

[00:02:32] were getting ready for everything. So they did an awesome job. And to your point about

[00:02:35] failure, that's why I wasn't sleeping the night before. I'm like, we're going to hit

[00:02:38] the button and this thing is not going to go live or something. And we're going to have

[00:02:41] all these people backed up, like trying to be on this live feed that doesn't exist.

[00:02:45] Because the one thing is when you build it in like this with these 30 minute increments,

[00:02:48] there's zero leeway in that schedule. If you had to start 15 minutes late or something,

[00:02:52] the whole thing is blown up. You have to now reach out to 24 people and tell them

[00:02:55] they're starting 15 minutes late. It just doesn't work. They've got appointments afterwards.

[00:02:59] If this thing didn't work, we were in a whole world of hurt. So I'm happy it did

[00:03:04] work. It's a Justin's thing with Rafe. That was the one time that I was probably a little

[00:03:09] overwhelmed. You could probably see it in the video. The videos I'm posting after are just

[00:03:13] the person speaking is only on the screen, but during the live stream all of us were on the

[00:03:16] screen. And I was getting texts from Brent like the feed is down because we just realized...

[00:03:21] So Twitter says that if you schedule a feed in advance, it can only go for six hours.

[00:03:26] But if you do it live or it's not scheduled, you just start it now,

[00:03:29] it can go for as long as possible. But it turns out the six hours applies to everything.

[00:03:33] We did it the right way, but six hours in it just shut off. When that happened, we were right in the

[00:03:38] middle of the interview with Rafe and Rafe wasn't able to share the presentation. So I was trying

[00:03:42] with my right hand, I was sharing the presentation for Rafe with my left hand. I was trying to

[00:03:45] reboot the feed because Brent was texting me the whole time. I'm like, please don't say

[00:03:50] anything to me that I have to ask a question because I have no idea what's going on right

[00:03:53] now. But thankfully we made it through and it was an awesome day. It was great to be able

[00:03:57] to raise money for Susan G. Komen. It's a great cause. We have to thank Simplify ETFs and Eric

[00:04:02] McCardell as well. They were our sponsor and they did a great job helping us out in every way

[00:04:07] they could. So yeah, I think in general it was a great event. We're going to keep it going.

[00:04:10] We're going to have all the replays up on our channel, Alien Spot Gammas. We're releasing

[00:04:14] all the videos. They were half hour each so we're releasing them in hour increments with

[00:04:17] two people paired together. By the time this comes out, we'll probably have about half of

[00:04:21] them out. And within a week of this coming out, we'll have them all out. So anybody who

[00:04:24] wants to watch just specific interviews, you can either dig them out of the 12 hour live stream or

[00:04:28] you can wait until we release these individual episodes and watch them then. But yeah, overall,

[00:04:32] I mean Matt, I don't know what your take was, but I think considering what could have gone

[00:04:35] wrong, I think we did a pretty good job. I've got a lot of lessons. I'm always very critical

[00:04:38] at what I'm doing so I've got a lot of lessons I want to take from next time. But

[00:04:41] I think in general it went pretty well. I mean move over Jerry Lewis, Jack Forehands

[00:04:46] in town. Like this is how it goes. Can I get a phone bank next time? I think behind me.

[00:04:51] So I think we need phone banks. We need some call-in operators. There's a number of ways

[00:04:56] we can really dial up the Jerry Lewis-ness of this. But it was an exceptional event and

[00:05:02] I mean 24 guests showed up to do this. Like that's incredible. That's just an incredible

[00:05:10] group and community effort. This community at its finest. So cool. It's crazy to think

[00:05:15] that like when I would always look when I was doing the interview at the end,

[00:05:18] like because it would say whoever's in the waiting room, I had my computer to the left

[00:05:21] that was actually the producer. So I was like letting people in and out and like they were

[00:05:24] always there which like I was like at some point somebody's gonna forget, somebody's not

[00:05:29] gonna show up. Like 100% of the time when I would look you know three or four minutes

[00:05:32] before they're supposed to come on, they were always there. So like it was a testament to

[00:05:36] everybody who came on and the great job they did to make this really easy for us because

[00:05:40] it could have gone all kinds of different ways. We could have had you know Matt having to do

[00:05:43] a half-hour monologue because someone didn't show up or something like that or me rambling

[00:05:47] on about something. So like it all worked out really well that like you know because we had

[00:05:51] behind the scenes we prepared a bunch of backup content and thinking like we may have to roll

[00:05:55] into like this topic or we may have to roll into this podcast. So like based on the different

[00:05:59] hosts that were there, we had backup topics for all the different combinations like what we

[00:06:03] would have gone into if somebody didn't show up but thankfully they all did. Nothing like

[00:06:07] live. Exceptional, spot gamma, everybody over there. You can judge a person by how great their

[00:06:14] team is and just like the Vellidia XS Returns team, same with spot gamma. Just so many remarkable

[00:06:20] people behind the scenes, such a pleasure to be a part of and what an amazing way to raise some

[00:06:24] money for a great charity. And just one thing before we get to Justin's going to do the

[00:06:28] lessons here but the thing on the live is also like something you don't appreciate. You

[00:06:31] know I had done, I'd been a guest I guess on three live podcasts and then we had done one.

[00:06:35] Brett and I did a live thing just to test to make sure everything worked but it is very

[00:06:39] different. You know when you're used to oh like you know you go now I'll cut that out

[00:06:43] later like when you've got, not that we cut, I mean our podcasts are 99% the same

[00:06:47] when we record them is what they would end up in public but like the ability to trim out all that

[00:06:51] little stuff like you don't realize it's not you know you won't have that ability and also

[00:06:56] like if you you know if I don't have a question in a podcast if I'm like oh I gotta

[00:07:00] go back to my notes I can't figure out what to ask next. Like it's much easier in a recorded

[00:07:04] thing like if it's live it's like you better have a question, you better come up with

[00:07:06] something like even if it's dumb like keep the thing rolling so uh that that is a big

[00:07:11] Cullen Rowe should actually email me after like live is a different animal and that's what it is

[00:07:14] it's like live is a different animal like it's the same thing I mean you're still

[00:07:19] looking at your computer and talking to people on a screen but it's very different like when

[00:07:22] you know in the back of your head that it's live. So what we thought we would do is kind

[00:07:27] of just start at the beginning of the day and work through all the guests and see what

[00:07:33] lessons we had taken from those discussions and I think a lot of it will be you know

[00:07:41] there's these big like thematic things that will probably come out of it and you know I might

[00:07:47] name someone and maybe we there is a lesson there's something quick there but you know

[00:07:51] there's a lot of people to get through and obviously not all of us took part in every

[00:07:55] single discussion so these first couple you know while I was trying to watch it I was also

[00:08:02] trying to prepare for the start of my day. So I wasn't able to watch necessarily

[00:08:08] all of Jack or Brent or Matt's other interviews but I know Jack at the beginning you guys kind

[00:08:14] of started well I wouldn't say it was mostly macro but Andy Constant is mostly macro and he

[00:08:22] was our first guest he was actually the second guest we're gonna start with him because that

[00:08:27] was the one that you co-hosted with Brent. But yeah what was Andy I know Andy has these

[00:08:33] what is it like looking at the market like the plays or the islands or yeah the islands of macro

[00:08:39] right that's what we actually called one of our episodes with him the islands of macro but

[00:08:42] yeah Andy's really cool because Andy is very um Andy's like a blend of systematic and discretionary

[00:08:47] so he looks at he comes from our world of like systematic because he worked at Bridgewater

[00:08:50] but he also like comes from the discretionary world so he has he has really good takes on

[00:08:54] all this stuff and yeah he's I mean Andy's been in like the higher for longer camp for

[00:08:58] a long time with rates like thinking rates were going to stay there but you know one of the

[00:09:02] I have two takeaways from Andy like the first one is the difference between like having an opinion

[00:09:07] and then taking that opinion and judging it against what's priced in the market

[00:09:11] and so Andy has very much been like the person like rates and inflation are going to be higher

[00:09:14] for longer but he recently left that island he says he turned his boat around and exited

[00:09:19] that island but the reason he did it is because like he saw market pricing like everybody

[00:09:24] is now moving into this and I mentioned this in our previous episode with this all these

[00:09:26] presentations at this conference I was at like everybody's higher for longer now like

[00:09:30] higher for longer became like a non-consensus thing now it's a consensus thing so like that

[00:09:35] thing and it's a good lesson even for like long-term investors who aren't doing any trading is

[00:09:38] like if I am going to have an opinion I've got to have a good reason why I'm smarter than the

[00:09:43] market and what's priced in the market and so Andy's looking at it as like all right it's

[00:09:47] gotten too far on higher for longer now I think there's more of a recession risk not now

[00:09:51] but in the next few years than people think I'm kind of have my boat out at sea and I

[00:09:55] might end up like on recession island but I think that divergent opinion is really important

[00:10:00] and then the only other one and that'll let you guys go is the the ability to like and this

[00:10:04] applies to everything it doesn't just apply to investing it applies to politics it applies

[00:10:07] to everything like the ability when you get information that discredits what you think to

[00:10:11] change um and Andy is 100% the best person I know on that like he will if he gets information

[00:10:17] that the challenges his thesis he will pivot the next day like there was this thing um he

[00:10:22] had been there's this thing behind the scenes where like how much when the treasury

[00:10:26] is issuing new debt like how much of it long term versus how much of a short term it's

[00:10:29] a big indicator he follows and like there was one point and I think it was like late last year

[00:10:33] correct uh he can correct me if I'm wrong but uh late last year like he had been very very

[00:10:37] bearish on the market and like that report came out and the next day he put a tweet out like

[00:10:42] buy everything like you know and he was 100 right about it but it was like people were

[00:10:46] responding to the tweet like it was a joke they're like they thought it was like April

[00:10:50] fool's day but like he got information that discredited like what he thought and he

[00:10:53] immediately switched and like that's I mean we all can learn from that like whether it's our

[00:10:58] market views our political views whatever it is like if we have a certain opinion and then

[00:11:03] we get information that says that opinion is wrong it's very hard to change it and you know

[00:11:07] so those are my two lessons from Andy yeah I love that Andy maps back against the reality

[00:11:12] that's like you just said that's one of my favorite things about him that's what I love

[00:11:15] listening to him for is it's there is no perfect like untestable idea or truth in his

[00:11:22] head he's always looking for how do I test this against what what the rest of the world is

[00:11:27] reflecting back at me and I think maybe when you hear like that point about being able to change

[00:11:35] your view on something I think is a very good point it's very important the only thing I would

[00:11:40] sort of say to that is you know when you're an investor and you're thinking about long-term

[00:11:45] investing it's and these are macro guys so this is what they've kind of built businesses

[00:11:49] around looking at the macro environment and building strategies to withstand various types of

[00:11:54] macro types of environments but sometimes you know investors can get

[00:12:02] kind of confused on sort of wow this guy said this this week and then said this this week so

[00:12:07] you just got to kind of balance the views with sort of your long-term investment goals

[00:12:12] and that's why there's people like Matt out there that can kind of keep you in check and

[00:12:16] say you know what you have your trading account over here you have your retirement account

[00:12:22] over here you know um yeah this is a financial planning podcast and the vast majority of people

[00:12:27] listening to this shouldn't be involved in any of that like any of that day-to-day stuff but

[00:12:31] the overall point like so what you said about being willing to change your opinion you know

[00:12:35] that still applies but like how am I going to get evidence that says that there's no risk

[00:12:39] premium in stocks for instance like I'm probably not going to get that evidence so I don't have

[00:12:43] to pivot on new information because I'm using long-term information that's not really going to

[00:12:46] change so where would apply to someone like you and I is like let's say we got overwhelming

[00:12:51] and we obviously don't have this but let's say we got overwhelming evidence that value investing

[00:12:55] doesn't work anymore that's a longer term example of the same idea would we be able to pivot and

[00:13:00] how quickly would we recognize that information and make that pivot so that's like the overall

[00:13:05] lesson is like when you get evidence and we're not going to we're not likely to get evidence

[00:13:08] that value investing doesn't work and we're big believers in value investing but if you do

[00:13:11] get evidence that you know challenges something you believe in how quickly are you able to

[00:13:16] process that information and make a change and that's to me is the biggest lesson from Andy

[00:13:20] the one funny and I'm just making this connection right now like the as opposed to taking a hatchet

[00:13:27] to like your investment philosophy the little stuff that does change and being able to like

[00:13:31] grapple with it is client who's a retiree who is doesn't drive a lot but very capable very

[00:13:40] actually pretty young still relatively easily can drive so she's got this like low mileage car

[00:13:45] that she's just more or less been like babying for years and whatever else but she takes it into

[00:13:50] the shop the other day and they're like the the bottom is all rusted out and it's a function

[00:13:54] of where she lives like rust rust is going to be a risk just because of where she lives

[00:13:58] and it's one of those things where it's like the car's still low mileage and whatever else

[00:14:02] but this rust has become enough of an issue that the car had to be replaced

[00:14:06] it's like okay I didn't want to spend all this extra money getting a new car this year

[00:14:10] but we look back it's like well the taxable accounts are up almost three times what you're

[00:14:14] going to need to spend on the new car like you have new information would you rather have

[00:14:19] your grandkids be safe in a new car or be driving the old rust bucket around and it's

[00:14:24] being able to grapple with new information and reflect on it to reprioritize that's

[00:14:29] that's the lesson here and that is a financial planning lesson as much as yeah don't please

[00:14:34] don't switch from like I've been a buffet style value investor for all these years

[00:14:39] and now I'm gonna go trade meme stocks don't do that but do be flexible in your beliefs

[00:14:44] the other one thing with Andy and I know we gotta move here because we've got we've got way too

[00:14:47] many people to get through we only have 23 to go no we're fine but the islands is actually a

[00:14:51] big lesson as well because and this is something we learn as factor investors like the ability

[00:14:55] to take something that's a complex concept and putting in put it into a framework that's

[00:14:58] simple like that is so important like you know me is like uh you know me like showing a

[00:15:03] client like let's show you let's come look at my regression you know look at the t-stats on

[00:15:07] this thing like nobody has any idea what you're talking about but like when you put it in something

[00:15:10] like the islands it makes it so much more understandable for your average person to understand what's

[00:15:14] going on so just so we don't um skip anyone we we had Mike Taylor from simplify who runs

[00:15:20] their healthcare etf I mean the one thing jack and you were you were on that one but

[00:15:23] I'll just say real quick I think it's very cool this isn't a lesson this is just the

[00:15:27] mission or uh it's to generate returns for their investors in the fund but then the profits

[00:15:32] to the Susan G Komen Foundation which I think it's the only etf out there where it's fees

[00:15:38] after it probably pays its costs and stuff the profits go to charity which is very neat

[00:15:45] yeah and I think that I think it is um and that to me was probably the biggest takeaway

[00:15:50] is you know we did this for one day but they're doing it every day right um you know

[00:15:53] that etf is is basically making fees every single day or making profits every single

[00:15:56] day that are going to Susan G Komen so I think that's really cool and then

[00:15:59] the only other takeaway I would have for Mike is like I think whatever's going on in health

[00:16:03] care is really cool um like we talked about aging we talked about cancer like I mean he

[00:16:07] thinks cancer is something you're just gonna be he doesn't think we're gonna cure cancer

[00:16:10] but he thinks it's gonna be something that you just kind of can live with and you know doesn't

[00:16:13] cause you to die and you you treat with medicine and it's just there um he kind of

[00:16:17] said it's like a detente like you you know you and cancer are like like it's you're stuck

[00:16:21] in this middle ground it's not winning you're not winning but you just you just continue

[00:16:24] live and you eventually die from some other cause so I think it's all that stuff you know

[00:16:29] glp ones it's just very cool all the stuff that's going on in health care innovation and

[00:16:33] mike is I mean most people think mike is one of the best health care investors that exists so

[00:16:37] it's cool to hear that from him uh what about jem karzai i know he always has tons

[00:16:43] of stuff to say around markets volatility his view on rates and where things are going

[00:16:49] what was the big lesson there do you think yeah well the first thing with jem is like

[00:16:52] whenever we have him on like you can see like if you're ever monitoring like I was watching the

[00:16:55] youtube stats like the concurrent streams or whatever it's like the thing just like like

[00:16:59] smoke starts shooting out of youtube whenever he comes on everything i mean we've never found

[00:17:03] anyone who comes on our podcast who has like as loyal of a following as jem does like

[00:17:07] anything he does people just start flocking to it um yeah i mean i think my biggest takeaway

[00:17:11] from him is it just makes me think about like some of the bigger issues we have in terms of

[00:17:15] not just what inflation is doing today or what it's doing tomorrow but the bigger picture of

[00:17:20] if there's going to be more fiscal stimulus if more money is going to be going to people

[00:17:24] instead of corporations and we're not here to argue the you know whether that's good or bad

[00:17:29] like um it's more like if that happens what are the major trends that's going to mean over the

[00:17:33] next decade like i think about that all the time when i talk to him because he has a

[00:17:36] really great framework about how he thinks about this and he thinks that's where we're headed

[00:17:40] like we're headed to a situation where more money is going to go to people you know there's

[00:17:44] going to be more fiscal stimulus um you know we're not going to have this zero percent

[00:17:47] thing where you're i mean he mentioned the podcast like without zero percent rates this is crazy to

[00:17:52] say because it's the largest you know one of the largest companies in the world like without zero

[00:17:55] percent rates there would be no amazon um it wouldn't exist today so like it's just it that

[00:18:00] was such a different world than the one we're in and i'm not smart enough to know whether

[00:18:04] which world is going to win out in the long run i mean i think it's very unlikely we're

[00:18:07] headed back to zero percent rates at least but it just makes me think about the future and

[00:18:11] what the implications are and again you know a lot of this is not something me or anybody

[00:18:14] else watching you know this podcast should make any changes to their portfolio based on but i think

[00:18:18] it's important for all of us to think about just the issues we face in the world and like

[00:18:22] where things might go and so that was my big takeaway from him i think he has a great framework

[00:18:25] on that front matt what do you think united katie stockton that was that was pretty cool

[00:18:29] katie's pretty awesome and she had really good things to say afterwards i didn't should

[00:18:34] afford it to you sorry i didn't but uh but yeah i mean what what what do you think from katie

[00:18:39] what stood out to you what's one of my favorite things that katie said is she talked about using

[00:18:45] different so technical analysis technical analyst she talked about different tools for

[00:18:50] different phases of trends and i think that's such a valuable insight to just say there are

[00:18:56] certain things you're going to kind of always monitor over time but there's different things

[00:19:00] you're going to emphasize based on the environment that you're in i see the financial

[00:19:05] planning corollaries to this where it's like the way you think about like spending down assets

[00:19:11] in retirement is super different than the way you think about accumulating assets early on

[00:19:15] is the same way you you're going to pull out a different toolbox or different tools to think

[00:19:20] about a stock that's gone parabolic versus a stock that's gone sideways and whatever else

[00:19:25] and that whole combination of how do you know which ones to pull out and when to help

[00:19:30] control risk because that's ultimately everything technical analysis in her perspective is about

[00:19:35] controlling risk it's just so cool to see you got to learn all these different tools you got to

[00:19:40] know when they apply and there's no silver bullets you start the conversation there's no

[00:19:45] crystal balls don't come to me like you think there's a crystal ball it's it's such a good

[00:19:49] journeyman approach to how to apply a craft i so deeply appreciate her insights yeah and

[00:19:55] you're right about that risk point and like the other point that she brought up is you know

[00:19:59] the technicals are the guiding force and they are telling you when to move in and when to move

[00:20:07] well one to move out and when to move back in and that you know those are two remember anytime

[00:20:12] you're moving out of something there's got to be some decision at some point in the future to

[00:20:16] move back in and technicals whether it's the different indicators she's looking at or you could

[00:20:20] even like look at like different momentum types of indicators are what drives those decisions

[00:20:27] so it's you know not one decision oftentimes it's two you know so you see there's so many

[00:20:34] disciplines i mean with investing you're trying to get more things right than you get them wrong

[00:20:38] like none of this stuff works all the time you know this goes for everybody even the macro

[00:20:41] guys we had on technical analysts like factor investing like they're all different time frames

[00:20:46] they're all different things but you know we talked about this in our episode of trend

[00:20:49] following i mean trend following is actually wrong more than it's right but it actually

[00:20:52] works over time it's just you have to be humble in this you know you're going to get humbled no

[00:20:56] matter what you do you're gonna have periods where what you're doing looks horrific you

[00:21:00] know and i think the people like katie who recognize that um and you know talk about

[00:21:04] both the positives and negatives of what they do i think is really good and the 10 o'clock

[00:21:09] spot was mike green um who we've had on to talk about some of the rise the rise and

[00:21:15] impact of passive investing on the markets and stocks but what were the sort of key

[00:21:21] insights there jack do you think so i don't know if you guys actually got to watch this but we did

[00:21:24] not mention passive investing one time at the first time with our interview with mike green

[00:21:28] which was actually great um you know we got to hear like i wanted to focus more on his his

[00:21:32] macro insights and what he was seeing in the economy and stuff um you know he has some

[00:21:36] really great thoughts on passive investing and we've done a couple episodes about it but

[00:21:39] i wanted to kind of go a different direction this time yeah i mean i think you know we were

[00:21:43] talking about like my big takeaway that's a higher level is this idea that you can't

[00:21:47] completely rely on any given number um you know we were talking with mike a lot about how this

[00:21:52] idea that he thinks cpi is very over is overstating the actual true rate of inflation a lot

[00:21:57] um and you know if we're not here to debate that i mean we could have a long

[00:22:01] debate about that right now but that's not the point the point is we see so many numbers

[00:22:05] in the market that tell us so many different things and you have to be careful about what

[00:22:09] you're seeing and interpret it in the right way and and we'll talk about this a little

[00:22:12] bit more with our ben hunt interview as well but this idea that there's a lot of

[00:22:15] inflation numbers out there um you know and none of them are truth like truth behind the scenes

[00:22:20] in terms of what the rate of inflation is mike made this point and matt's made this a lot on

[00:22:23] our podcast is in the eyes of every person um you know the type of inflation somebody at

[00:22:28] the top of the spectrum right now so it's got a house and tons of wealth is seeing is very

[00:22:32] different than you know the person at the bottom of the spectrum who's barely getting by

[00:22:35] so i think that this idea that there are different inflation rates and we can't just trust

[00:22:39] any given number to tell us exactly what's going on in the world i mean i think that's my

[00:22:42] biggest takeaway we um we had corey hofstein uh founder of newfound research um and the guy

[00:22:53] one of the guys behind return stacking on matt and i talked to him i would say

[00:22:57] first of all corey came ready to play and he came prepared and he you know we had a

[00:23:02] lot to get through so we used his blog post it was like 15 lessons and frameworks and

[00:23:07] something over 15 years and you know i didn't think there was any chance we were going to get

[00:23:13] through that and basically we got through everything but one i skipped the one what

[00:23:17] or what did i give you is the over under before that was eight we were talking about eight

[00:23:20] yeah i was way off yeah i wasn't even close and i underestimated that corey would have planned

[00:23:24] in advance knowing exactly how much time he had and would have figured out exactly how

[00:23:28] you know to get the 15 lessons into the 30 minutes and i mean we told corey up front

[00:23:31] that i was going to be a little bit more like white me rounded nature so i was like

[00:23:34] corey number one this and then he would rattle off for like two minutes and then i would do this

[00:23:38] but for me what i and by the way people should go and read that post because there's so much

[00:23:45] knowledge and wisdom i think in that post it can you can google at a google like 15

[00:23:50] lessons and newfound research will probably come up um but he just brings like corey's super

[00:23:57] smart he brings like a level of like it's not skepticism but it's with with developing

[00:24:05] quantitative strategies back testing looking under the hood at things i just think like

[00:24:12] there's a lot of value in looking at this stuff like realistically and deeply and you know

[00:24:21] sort of trying to understand the why behind the numbers um and you know to the point that matt

[00:24:28] made before about katie you know a lot of what corey is talking about is different ways to

[00:24:33] manage risk or understand risk and the importance of that and i think the first one is you know

[00:24:40] the first thing he starts with that we start with him is you know risk can't be destroyed

[00:24:45] only transformed is that the quote am i do i have that right something like that um i think

[00:24:49] that is yeah yeah so and you know a lot of his stuff plays sort of awesome that we're into it so

[00:24:55] i mean for me that was the the big thing with corey yeah corey's awesome and i also have to

[00:25:00] thank corey by the way because like in the days coming up for this i was up to like midnight

[00:25:05] trying to get all these we needed 24 outlines for 24 different guests and like i saw this thing

[00:25:09] on twitter i'm like home run no outline necessary just just give justin and matt

[00:25:13] corey's 15 lessons and go with it so i have to thank corey for making my my preparation a

[00:25:17] lot easier because he had come up with like a much better outline than i could have come up with

[00:25:21] just by writing this tweet so i think we need to get him on i think we need to do a

[00:25:26] the 15 ideas frameworks just going through this lightning round with him there's totally a

[00:25:31] investing and financial planning combo episode in this one of my favorite things he said too was

[00:25:36] so i love the can't read conviction thing that he says i think that's brilliant i also

[00:25:42] want to ask him if you can triple net lease your conviction and sell it to somebody else

[00:25:45] that's a whole other conversation uh corey gets bonus points for making don quixote and

[00:25:51] sancho panza jokes you will always win me over with those and and yeah just the marrying of

[00:25:59] macro ideas with like smaller level skepticism or along the way nobody doesn't like him

[00:26:03] he's got a great sense of humor about it the whole way through and how the heck did he

[00:26:08] friggin package he did 16 to mind you it's 15 but there are actually 16 things he got

[00:26:14] them all in in a half an hour amazing we then jumped to uh jerry parker one of the original

[00:26:22] turtle traders uh trend following guy and for me at least and this is always stood out with

[00:26:27] jerry but like he is just he's like up up the best way i can describe it is like a

[00:26:35] purist trend follower so when you try to ask him questions around well could it be better

[00:26:42] with this or be better with that you know a lot of times he's just like no like you let your

[00:26:48] winners run you follow the trend you don't question the system and one of the things

[00:26:53] that he said which is really interesting even the trades that go against him he doesn't view

[00:27:01] those as like losing trades he has stop losses on things he takes small losses but for him

[00:27:09] that's part of the process like that's part of trend following is so you know he just takes this

[00:27:16] very like purist view and that's like refreshing to me because a lot of times you know we

[00:27:23] oftentimes want to get bogged down in like the making it more sophisticated making more

[00:27:28] complicated the more inputs the better and you know for him it's not it's like yeah he has a

[00:27:32] lot of i think he said he follows like 400 different like assets or instruments including

[00:27:37] individual stocks at this point so there's a lot of things coming in but in terms of just

[00:27:43] following trend and listening to trend and trading on trends like that's what he does

[00:27:48] yeah you remember that question like from because he that original turtle trader exam

[00:27:52] he had to take to get on there like he was like one of i think 12 people who passed out

[00:27:56] of thousands yeah um like one of the questions was should you love your losers or something

[00:28:00] um and the answer to that was true um and what was the other one there was there was

[00:28:04] another really good question in there i forget um there was it was more behavioral finance stuff

[00:28:08] though than it was like you know it was does it does it take money to make money oh yeah right

[00:28:13] was the question and the answer that was false uh and everybody everybody said true to that and

[00:28:17] and the answer that was false but what i what i love about jerry is like he's he has a

[00:28:22] system and he follows it and like all of us have trouble at times following our system like

[00:28:26] jerry follows his system no matter what um we were talking about coco a lot because coco

[00:28:31] has just been this crazy thing that's been in the news recently but like there's like this new

[00:28:34] form of trend following where people and that this makes sense as well but there where people have

[00:28:38] more of a risk managed approach so like there was this headline he put up there where it was

[00:28:43] like it was something like something sold off as you know trend followers sold at all-time

[00:28:47] highs or something was the uh was the headline he put up which makes no sense because trend

[00:28:51] followers should not be selling at all time highs but that is like the new version of

[00:28:54] trend following is the new version is there's like a risk manage part of it a mean whatever

[00:28:58] it is like where you know when it gets too much or a mean reversion part of it where you know you

[00:29:02] sell whereas jerry is pure trend following like jerry coco's going up jerry owns his coco like

[00:29:07] he doesn't uh you know jerry's not worried about the all that other stuff and i think

[00:29:11] that's really cool like he he's a traditional like trend follower and trend following is a

[00:29:15] really cool strategy um you know it's if you just look at the numbers like when you whenever

[00:29:19] you put the numbers of a strategy like trend following or managed futures or any of that kind

[00:29:23] of stuff like in front of an investor against like the 60 40 and against all that other stuff

[00:29:28] like and you don't tell them what it is it makes so much sense to add to a portfolio and then

[00:29:32] when you start telling people what it is you get into a situation where they're less

[00:29:35] comfortable with it but like these are these are strategies that would would benefit a lot

[00:29:39] of a lot of investors and then jack you and i we had we had never uh interviewed her we

[00:29:43] had kui win from research affiliates on um i'm trying to think with that i mean she talked

[00:29:50] about ai and the impact ai is going to have um on society and then what i kind of

[00:29:58] i don't know you know maybe this isn't uh something it's not necessarily a lesson but

[00:30:04] i kind of thought it was interesting she kind of had some what i felt were like a little

[00:30:09] bit different views than i thought the house views were on and they're like she wasn't like

[00:30:14] you know all in her we've had rob on and this isn't a lesson here it was just a little bit of

[00:30:19] a different view that i thought we were going to get from someone from research affiliates that

[00:30:23] they tend to be more value-based investors and she wasn't just like

[00:30:27] you know all value she was you know definitely talked about some of these you know big us

[00:30:34] based growth companies and their sort of dominance in the market and yeah so i don't

[00:30:40] know that's a lesson or not but that is the that is the lesson though the lesson is

[00:30:43] like the ability to look at both sides because you know as you said she comes from a value-based

[00:30:47] shop um but you know her views on ai were nuanced um you know she wasn't all negative on

[00:30:52] ai and she wasn't even all negative on the fact that like investors might be able to make

[00:30:56] money in ai like a lot of people like us that are value guys will be like all right you know

[00:30:59] ai is going to be this world-changing thing but there's no way you're ever profiting from

[00:31:02] it move on with your life and you know that's probably good for a lot of people but she she

[00:31:06] didn't come from that perspective i mean she thought there would be opportunities in ai

[00:31:09] um and the same thing we talked about the mag seven stocks she wasn't just like these are

[00:31:13] overvalued and it's got to end and you know just buy value stocks or whatever it was like

[00:31:17] she had a pig you know opinions that those there are a lot of positives about those companies that

[00:31:21] haven't been true of other companies in the past i mean we talked about the idea that you

[00:31:24] know the top 10 companies in the s&p 500 usually don't last decade to decade and we talked to

[00:31:29] her about the idea of whether these would and you know you can watch the interview to get

[00:31:32] all of her take on that but i think it was great because she had a balanced view

[00:31:36] and i think that's important for all of us to you know understand that like there's both

[00:31:39] sides to this you know we get trapped in like here's the value you know if i was writing my

[00:31:43] notes for an interview here's the value playbook of what a value investor is supposed to say

[00:31:47] in their hour-long interview and like she didn't do that and i thought that was really cool

[00:31:52] you then jumped on with darrius dale of 42 macro to talk a little bit more macro well

[00:32:00] i jumped on then i jumped off because unfortunately my computer crashed about five

[00:32:04] minutes into the darrius dale interview like i just heard a noise and like there was nothing

[00:32:08] in front of me so everything failed and then my keyboard wouldn't come back so anyway the

[00:32:12] takeaway from all that is that grent ended up on his own for i was there for about 10 minutes

[00:32:15] and then brent ended up on his own with darrius but what i love about darrius is you know

[00:32:19] obviously we're systematic investors and that's what darrius is and he applies that to the

[00:32:23] macro world like a lot of guys in the macro world are trying to like figure this out to

[00:32:26] read the tea leaves themselves like darrius is 100 data driven he has i mean we were joking

[00:32:31] in the in the podcast i mean i don't think there's a human being walking the earth that's

[00:32:34] prepared more powerpoint slides than darrius dale he has like 170 slides or something that

[00:32:39] he updates every month it's something like that and it's crazy how good his you know his

[00:32:43] thoughts are and so that's my takeaways i love you know darrius is also somebody who's willing

[00:32:48] to pivot but he's willing to pivot because he's going completely off the data you know

[00:32:51] he's using the data and whatever his data is telling him and he has all kinds of different

[00:32:54] cycles that come together into his opinion like i love darrius darrius is a really smart guy

[00:32:59] uh we then jumped on with meb faber so we talked to meb about the way that endowments invest and

[00:33:08] he's kind of been critical of just the amount of resources that a lot of these endowment funds

[00:33:15] specifically you know he kind of was using calpers but you could look at a lot of these

[00:33:19] places they have you know huge staffs and the returns are you know some returns are good

[00:33:26] some returns are decent some returns are bad and he's just been a little bit more

[00:33:31] he wrote the book called the ivy portfolio which was trying to replicate these endowment

[00:33:35] type returns you know using low-cost etfs and then thinks you can get you know most of

[00:33:39] the way they're doing that and he recently had on um the guy that runs the nevada i think

[00:33:45] state pension plan and how this guy so like there's two people in this office and they

[00:33:50] basically just use you know passive investing vehicles to for the vast majority of the funds

[00:33:56] and it's like one of the better performing state pension funds out there but to me

[00:34:02] what i found very interesting and it's in the headlines recently and i thought this was a very

[00:34:06] good point that meb made he said that when you think about all the actual clients an

[00:34:14] endowment fund has and the various sort of views that they may have you have your

[00:34:23] you have your students you have your professors you have your alumni you have um

[00:34:31] uh other you know donors and so you have all these and the reason that come that came to

[00:34:36] mind for me is because i was thinking i don't know if you guys have seen in the news like

[00:34:41] students at columbia are asking their endowment to divest they're putting pressure on the

[00:34:48] endowment for them to divest all their holdings in israel-based israeli investments and so you

[00:34:57] can see how these like different competing stakeholders or constituents could be influenced

[00:35:05] influencing these endowment funds and the decisions that are happening i just felt that

[00:35:09] that was a very uh sort of interesting thing to me to think about you know it's not like there's

[00:35:13] just one investor or one client you have thousands of clients and each each segment of them probably

[00:35:20] has a little different take on what they want the endowment to accomplish maybe to some extent

[00:35:24] i don't know if you guys agree with that or that jumps out to you but that's kind of what's

[00:35:27] stood out to me no i mean that's right i mean there's there's all kinds of competing

[00:35:31] interests you know regardless of what your opinion is on this stuff like they have a tough

[00:35:34] job uh there's a lot of different constituencies they have to deal with you know it was just

[00:35:38] in terms of my takeaways from that it was interesting like i thought like you would have

[00:35:42] thought based on the way the interview went that like we had looked at all the things meds written

[00:35:46] papers about and like prepped on it and we didn't like every time i'd ask somebody be

[00:35:50] like we got a paper oh yeah you know it's like even like there was an upcoming i asked

[00:35:53] him about like the challenge behaviorally of these models and he was like we've got an

[00:35:56] upcoming paper there's not even out yet like so it's like it's amazing like the depth of

[00:36:00] research they produce is amazing like every question we had like was something like that

[00:36:04] but going going back to the endowment thing it is interesting i mean these all these

[00:36:07] institutions have layers and layers you know they've got tons of employees they've got high fee

[00:36:11] managers you know and the question is does it work and you know i'm not here i don't

[00:36:15] have the answer to it but you know the calpers thing came up because med has been on twitter

[00:36:19] like he's applied i think he's actually applied i think three times when they've had a cio

[00:36:23] opening at calpers because he really believes that if you just had you could build with like

[00:36:28] low cost etfs you could build a portfolio that would do better after fees and taxes or

[00:36:32] they don't have taxes but after fees then what uh you know they're doing and it's an

[00:36:36] interesting debate i mean it's not clear that these these types of institutions are doing any

[00:36:41] better than you could just with like these low low fee things and obviously you're not

[00:36:45] gonna that's never going to happen because you know all these people have jobs and they want to

[00:36:48] maintain the jobs and they can do make charts to justify the jobs so whether it's true or not

[00:36:53] is not going to happen but it is interesting to think about like i'm sure the elite

[00:36:56] institutions probably do produce better returns than you could you know with the low fee

[00:37:01] approach but most of them probably don't so a lot of them should probably be doing in

[00:37:06] his interview with the nevada guy was awesome i recommend anybody listen to it on the medfavor

[00:37:09] channel on youtube but i mean it really is somebody him and one other person like you know

[00:37:13] i think he goes and plays golf and stuff like him and one other person it's in low cost etfs

[00:37:16] and they're done with it i think it's so important just i gotta go back and listen to

[00:37:21] that one because i did not get to catch that one on the live stream but the um yeah like

[00:37:25] the work ted cites has done around this too people don't actually understand that model

[00:37:29] it's easy to punch at there's a lot of complexity to it and certainly the shake the

[00:37:34] stakeholder levels make it just a fascinating thing to think about so cool but also to ted

[00:37:39] cites point like you can't if you want to criticize these things you what you can't do is you can't

[00:37:43] put up the s&p 500 chart over the long term and put it up against this they have completely

[00:37:48] different goals as to what they're trying to achieve so if you're going to compare it to

[00:37:50] something and this is what mev's doing by the way he is comparing it to something like

[00:37:53] this right you need to take something with a similar risk profile that tries to achieve

[00:37:57] similar goals but do it with low cost etfs like they're not trying to beat the s&p 500

[00:38:02] they're trying to meet spending goals they're trying to do all kinds of other things so

[00:38:06] it's not the one thing that's not fair is to put up the s&p 500 chart and be like oh these

[00:38:09] things are all terrible because the s&p 500 has killed them you know if you go to other decades

[00:38:13] that's not going to be true but also like investing purely in the s&p 500 wouldn't be

[00:38:17] consistent with what their goals are yeah the risk in liquidity budget balancing of these policy

[00:38:22] portfolios it also makes it such an interesting thing to study because it actually gets closer

[00:38:29] to the real world individuals invest in more of a version of that than so many of like you know

[00:38:37] the vanguardian of the valent galaxy uh like just put all your money in an index fund you

[00:38:42] never have to make a decision again it's like no i know there's a lot of decisions that happen

[00:38:46] at the margin the next slot was with um rafael rascendes i was applied finance and

[00:38:53] this one i would say is the one that probably was most strategy specific so raf started out by

[00:39:01] and it was more of a presentation type mode um so he had i mean a couple of these other guys had

[00:39:05] slides but um raf sort of started with safer market investing and that concept and then what

[00:39:12] goes into when he's talking safer markets he's talking like safer equity investment

[00:39:19] type of investing so looking at companies that are strong stewards of capital that are investing

[00:39:26] above their cost of capital or don't require a lot of high external financing and he sort

[00:39:32] of demonstrated why it's important to avoid the destroyers the bad stewards and then and

[00:39:38] allocate to the strong stewards and then also you know he introduced a concept of intrinsic

[00:39:43] value investing which is trying to buy companies below their intrinsic value and then demonstrated

[00:39:48] why avoiding overvalued companies and buying undervalued companies based on intrinsic value

[00:39:54] was a very powerful force and then it kind of all kind of coalesces into a strategy at least

[00:40:00] portfolios that they can kind of look at like the russell 1000 and look at like companies

[00:40:05] that score high based on this this type of safer market style of investing and then avoid

[00:40:11] avoid um those that don't and the real powerful thing there is you know the data that

[00:40:16] race showing isn't um it's point in time live data that they've had going back to 1998 so it's not

[00:40:22] it's not back tested data it's data that's been there and they've been doing this for a long

[00:40:26] time so a lot of good stuff with race and again that's more you know much more strategies

[00:40:31] to say it was more of race kind of presenting which is fine that lended itself fine jack and

[00:40:35] i think jack asked one question i may have asked too and then we kind of called him today

[00:40:39] and we let race run with it well also he i hope a big thank you for that because as i

[00:40:44] mentioned earlier i was in complete meltdown mode at that point like trying to keep the feed up while

[00:40:47] trying to run the presentation like so i wasn't in a position where i was capable of asking any

[00:40:51] questions so uh but you know for me this is this is the one i'll relist to the most because

[00:40:56] it's the one that challenges the way i invest the most and that's what we all have to do i

[00:41:00] think as investors you know this is the you know rave is not a believer you know we've

[00:41:03] been putting out these charts forever like all of us that are value investors about these

[00:41:06] spreads and how values like a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and you know when you look at those

[00:41:11] you have to also look at the other side and you know he had a thing he put up at the end

[00:41:14] which i think is the most important thing to look at which is this idea that yes the spread

[00:41:19] between value and growth is very high but also growth companies right now have the highest

[00:41:24] economic margins they've had you can correct me just if i'm wrong about this but like

[00:41:28] they have ultra-high economic margins and value companies have ultra-low economic margins

[00:41:33] so if you combine those two things together you get into a situation where maybe value is

[00:41:38] more fairly valued and not at this steep discount and so those are the types of things that as value

[00:41:43] investors we need to look at because it contradicts what we believe and so that's why i'll listen back

[00:41:48] you know i'll listen back because i was in complete panic mode during this but i'll also

[00:41:51] listen back because i think it's the most important one for me personally to listen to

[00:41:54] of everything we did then samantha was on samantha ladek was on with bren at ladoo yes

[00:42:01] sorry yeah that was great as well we should mention you know we for for ones like samantha

[00:42:05] and for noel smith who we skipped over before like we won't have a ton of takeaways but that's not

[00:42:10] because the interviews weren't awesome they were awesome it's more because we don't exist in in the

[00:42:14] trading world um and so we don't have as many uh you know i know matt has started day trading

[00:42:18] in the wake of this thing but he needs to build up a track record before he can start

[00:42:21] commenting on this um but there's only been so many days for my zero data expiration options

[00:42:26] exactly so far yeah these are there's a reason we let brent do these interviews by himself

[00:42:31] like every interview that you see that brent does by himself it's basically because none

[00:42:33] of the three of us were qualified to be sitting there um and we would not have added any value

[00:42:38] to it so uh yeah so we really appreciate samantha doing it in noel and anybody else

[00:42:42] where we won't have takeaways from it but it's not because there weren't takeaways it's

[00:42:45] because they kind of exist in a different world than we do and matt i think uh the next next

[00:42:49] one west really liked your your question about the energy drink what type of energy

[00:42:55] drink would it be would it be a small red bull or would it be like a tall boy like

[00:43:00] uh so so west makes the reference as we're talking to uh and i know he's made this comment before

[00:43:06] but it was just the way he said it in the moment about trying to get value juice and so my hard

[00:43:12] hitting journalist question for west was like let's talk about value juice if you were to

[00:43:18] package it and sell it would it be like in a little bottle would it be like a shot glass

[00:43:22] would it be like a little red bull can would it be like a tall boy would it be a 40 like

[00:43:27] like i don't know like what would it be and so i think what we arrived at is it would have to be

[00:43:32] a taller can because we needed to have some of the some of the things like the labels

[00:43:37] of ingredients included uh what was it pain hatred mispricing all the disclaimers he had

[00:43:44] some great ingredients all the disclaimers for the can this is this is why you're here by the

[00:43:49] way matt because there's no chance justin and i are doing an interview with west and we're

[00:43:51] ending up with like how would you package value juice um so this is where you add so

[00:43:56] much value to the podcast because we'd be like in the weeds of some number thing and like

[00:44:00] this is this is your value add i am thrilled to add the value to it and and as we discussed

[00:44:07] later because i think it came up in the personal interview but we'll come back to it of you

[00:44:10] know explaining uh explaining west as a ninja turtle which i think she also very much

[00:44:15] appreciate it this was what happens when uh i'm on too many interviews and too many meetings

[00:44:20] and start to go crazy and just if anyone's interested you know one of the things that

[00:44:24] west talked about in the back half was this etf white labeling business and the the 351 tax code

[00:44:33] thing and how more rias or family offices can kind of uh you know move money into an etf

[00:44:40] and have this like a tax-free exchange or whatever if i'm describing correctly but where

[00:44:44] i was going with that is i think it's cool like if you want to see some innovative

[00:44:48] interesting ets like all on one page go to etf architect and look at their funds i think

[00:44:53] they have 52 different funds now with over maybe like 10 billion in etf assets and you know there's

[00:45:00] a lot of innovative etfs on there that i think investors could you know look at and maybe find

[00:45:07] some value in and maybe even you know invest in if it if it's just right for them so

[00:45:13] that's that's a great business he's building over there and um you know they've done great

[00:45:17] so what yeah what i love about west is like west is is he's more than willing to look at

[00:45:22] the evidence on both sides but you're not going to break west so like if west has a conviction in

[00:45:27] value investing and he thinks the evidence supports value investing he doesn't care how long it

[00:45:30] performs like west is good you're not going to break west's long-term conviction and i think

[00:45:34] that's something like all of us can learn from and i'm sure that comes from you know

[00:45:37] west is obviously an ex marine um but you know i think that's really cool that like he

[00:45:42] you know he's willing when he thinks the evidence supports what he's doing he's going

[00:45:45] to stick with it he also said and it's so it's so obvious this is the other thing west

[00:45:51] is great for he can take something so obvious and you all of a sudden realize the philosophical

[00:45:55] depth of the thing he made the comment about basically like all value investing is just fear

[00:46:01] and all momentum investing is just greed and that's why they work together i like that that

[00:46:05] is so poetically perfect to say fear and greed are what matters that's why you need

[00:46:10] value that's why you need momentum chef's kiss the west on that one you guys then jumped on

[00:46:17] hunt which who you talk to every two weeks what was the what was the topic what was the lesson

[00:46:23] yeah i love this one this is this is what we've done like on our breaking news podcast as well

[00:46:27] but this this idea this goes back to what we were talking about before this idea that there's

[00:46:30] like so many inflation numbers out there you know not just cpi and pce but core and then

[00:46:35] you can trim this out and you can trim that out and you can use the three month and you

[00:46:39] can use the six month and like no matter what your view is you can pretty much come up

[00:46:43] with a number to support it and ben calls that the map which is basically we have this concept this

[00:46:49] nebulous thing of inflation that's sitting out there that is at some rate is occurring in the

[00:46:53] economy we want to figure out how do we know what that is and so as humans we want numbers

[00:46:58] to be associated with that so we want to find a number that tells us here is the rate of

[00:47:02] inflation and ben's point was by looking at all these maps of inflation we're losing

[00:47:07] track of the territory which again is the nebulous concept up here of like what is

[00:47:11] inflation actually in the economy and ben is thinking about like when you look at like i think

[00:47:15] he's mentioned before like his town when you look at like their projections in terms of how

[00:47:19] much the growth is going to be you know every year in terms of their expenses like those are

[00:47:23] the things that are out there in the real world that are telling us inflation is still strong

[00:47:27] even if we take the three month annualized whatever and it says you know this is slower

[00:47:31] that is slower like it's important to keep an idea you know to keep in mind that what we

[00:47:35] want to look at here is the territory of inflation we don't want to just look at the

[00:47:39] map which is all these numbers ben can talk about this topic and it was if nothing else just to

[00:47:48] hear him the verbal version of the note as he explores his way through this and makes the

[00:47:53] comments about marrying of the expectations of all the different layers and then how all the

[00:47:59] people who want to navigate their message to those different layers about how to think about

[00:48:03] inflation he breaks down which things connect to which people in an audience that would want to

[00:48:08] hear it in the way that they want to hear it it's such a different approach to markets to think the

[00:48:13] way that he does and it's so useful for anybody who encounters who encounters macro or for people

[00:48:19] like me anybody who talks to clients as part of their daily job understanding how all these maps

[00:48:25] don't necessarily mind what the terrain but they're useful each in their own right

[00:48:29] endlessly valuable it's endlessly entertaining to talk to ben and i missed that i missed that

[00:48:34] we got notes at the end matt and we didn't have time but uh you know i did miss that

[00:48:38] whatever we do our breaking news episodes matt always like perfectly summarizes it based on the

[00:48:41] notes he's taken um and we just didn't have time to fit it in for this one no i should say i'm

[00:48:45] only getting through this because i have notes we were joking we were going to do another

[00:48:51] 12 hour live stream after the 12 hours where matt threw his notes on the 12 hours in the

[00:48:55] live stream we could have gone for 24 straight so the fun thing is as we're doing this i'm

[00:49:00] also i've got all the names on this list here and i'm halfway down what we might end

[00:49:05] up with playlist for the show just because i'm amusing myself while we have this conversation

[00:49:10] by jotting down songs for these people so sweet we'll see if we get there um this next

[00:49:16] one was there was a lot of great interviews and i didn't get to see all of them but i really

[00:49:21] enjoyed your conversation with perth earth is just she's just a very smart person very nice

[00:49:30] person a very uh humble person and probably for me like i'm sure you guys think i mean she shared

[00:49:38] that story that she's never shared in any of the podcasts you know you guys maybe tell that

[00:49:43] in a minute but um you know it's just i think like she what i appreciate and the lesson in

[00:49:52] in my opinion and i don't know if i have this in me um or if i've ever had it in me it's

[00:49:57] like when she was looking to get the freedom index seated and get it off the ground i mean

[00:50:03] she was willing to do anything possible i mean she was going to all these major ets issuers

[00:50:08] she was jumping on you know trying to you know hunt go to this fishing sort of thing

[00:50:15] up in maine because she knew that like rob arnott was going to be there and that she had

[00:50:19] pitched so it's just like her mission on at her dedication i guess and willingness to just

[00:50:26] do whatever it takes to get this thing off the ground was just super impressive and inspiring

[00:50:32] and not not very few people have that and then i'm really really hoping that i can

[00:50:39] convince her to do an intentional investor one of the other podcasts i host

[00:50:44] on this because her backstory is just so freaking interesting

[00:50:50] her talking about just the concept of where this comes from and i'll relate this back to

[00:50:55] financial planning it comes out of our own lived experiences so this strategy which has

[00:50:59] remarkable numbers has done brilliantly since all the effort it took to bring it to life

[00:51:04] it's rooted in her experience back and forth to china as a child then young adult that is

[00:51:10] you know as an adult and realizing when freedoms are restricted prosperity isn't allowed

[00:51:17] to follow when freedoms are present there's at least the opportunity for prosperity for

[00:51:21] potential prosperity and she both lives and embodies all of this in a stunningly gorgeous

[00:51:29] human way it's it's a wonderful wonderful story yeah i mean my takeaway from this one is watch it

[00:51:33] because i got you know i think while we were reporting it i got three different texts like

[00:51:37] that this is the best interview of the day um it was really really good and i don't want

[00:51:41] to even get into her stories too much because i'd rather hear you hear them from her like if

[00:51:45] it's in the feed now it'll be repackaged and put out you know it might not be out by the

[00:51:49] time this is out but it'll be out shortly thereafter in a smaller format like and i think

[00:51:53] i'm packaging all these in like packages of two but i think this one i'm probably gonna

[00:51:56] just put on its own um because i think it's that good and i think everybody should watch

[00:52:00] it so uh i think that's a takeaway from it matt you then jumped on with your good longtime

[00:52:05] friend jim o'Shaughnessy who i guess you've known for 10 years he's still this this is

[00:52:10] really this is really great because like i was just talking i was my dad always listens to

[00:52:14] our stuff and i was getting his takeaways from it and like his takeaway was also like

[00:52:18] he loved the perth interview he was one of the people that was texting me um during it but is

[00:52:22] also he had watched the gym one next and he was like you know he's like it's really great matt

[00:52:26] and jim have known each other for so long because it comes through in the podcast and i'm

[00:52:30] like dad matt met jim when they went live like they've never spoken before so it's a

[00:52:35] testament to you matt about how good you are at this that like you someone could think you've

[00:52:39] known jim forever and it's also a testament for jim um but like the fact that you guys

[00:52:43] could do a podcast where it seemed like you've known each other forever when you literally

[00:52:46] had not met until you went live is very cool yeah to be fair to your dad i've got at least 10 if

[00:52:51] not i mean i've got my what works on wall street book back there somewhere on this show like

[00:52:57] uh we've we've definitely interacted before we just haven't had a verbal let alone a video

[00:53:02] conversation so that that meant a lot to me just to get to shoot the breeze with him for

[00:53:06] a little bit i loved his point and one of the things i wanted him to talk about was

[00:53:11] it's wild when people when people have success in one thing and jim's had lots of success and

[00:53:19] lots of different ventures when people have success in one thing and then they want to

[00:53:23] translate it to something else and especially if they want to translate it into interests or

[00:53:28] passions dare i say or something like that because it's really easy to take money

[00:53:34] take money and blow it on a hobby and something i'm fascinated by him and watching him do is take

[00:53:41] things he's interested in like films and documentaries and even like music and the arts

[00:53:46] and gathering people publicly and trying to figure out where's the business inside of this

[00:53:52] to help make other people successful there's a lot of through lines in the half an hour we

[00:53:57] got to talk together about this type of stuff but just that concept how do you actually make

[00:54:01] an investment in something not as a hobby but as a business at the level that he's doing it with

[00:54:07] the network that he's put around him incredible man incredible conversation yeah jim is awesome

[00:54:11] like well we have him we'll have him on the podcast as much as he'll come we would

[00:54:15] rebuild the podcast around jim if we had to like he's jim is one of those interest

[00:54:19] infinite excess returns loops it's such an interesting like going from like you know

[00:54:23] quantitative sacra based investing to like you know basically dc where it's much more soster

[00:54:30] and you know much obviously you know you're investing in a team you're investing in a vision

[00:54:33] you're investing in an idea you're investing in passions you know these aren't things you can

[00:54:37] necessarily rate you know like you could like factor based stocks where you're just scoring

[00:54:42] and ranking and stuff so i don't know it's it's an interesting way to sort of think about

[00:54:47] how someone can go from that sort of idea of investing and and way of thinking to what he's

[00:54:53] doing now but jim's a super smart guy and yeah so all right um next up was uh tobias carlisle

[00:55:03] we had toby on there i don't know man i kind of thought i kind of came out really good with

[00:55:07] my acdc question about value stocks and acdc songs it was a fantastic question i rarely so

[00:55:16] thrilled to be blindsided by a challenge like this do you remember what toby said was his uh

[00:55:22] i gotta go back and pull what the top one was uh was it i think he said thunderstruck right

[00:55:30] i it was probably thundershock i feel like that's where he started and maybe ended but

[00:55:34] i'm sure there wasn't matt asking this question like this seems like right up matt's alley

[00:55:39] i was thinking i wanted to go something like i wanted to bring in midnight midnight oil like

[00:55:44] the beds are burning because i love that song and like i kind of felt like a zai investors

[00:55:49] were like you know our beds are burning but then i looked at like the actual meaning of the song

[00:55:53] and it was like an environmental thing that they were talking about some like

[00:55:56] oh let me what other australian rock bands and then obviously acdc i kind of totally

[00:56:01] forgot about which there's so many songs that can relate to because jack it's like back in

[00:56:05] black value investing has kind of come back a little bit so back in black you know or

[00:56:10] or uh what was the other one thunderstruck and then the we were yeah i think i tried to crowbar

[00:56:19] she shook me he shook me all night long into it at some point realized like maybe there's too

[00:56:23] much romanticism in that for value hell's bells um but yeah i think the other thing that

[00:56:28] uh you're trying to think at the outset told me he was talking about that chart that showed

[00:56:32] i think he was just highlighting the different quality of like large and small caps and how

[00:56:39] you know from a i guess value and quality standpoint it's just there's a lot oh that

[00:56:45] small and mid caps i think are still below maybe they're all time high from you know

[00:56:50] reverting back and kind of thinking about the why behind that like why has those companies

[00:56:58] which you would you know they're risk they're riskier companies there's maybe more of a risk

[00:57:01] premium there you would expect that maybe they would be back to where they were a few years

[00:57:07] ago and yet they're not i think is what toby was pointing out and sort of the why behind that

[00:57:12] and so we were talking about some of those ideas anytime anybody does any type of value

[00:57:18] let alone a deep value strategy and gets into the different ways that that can be arbed

[00:57:24] arbitrage to like close that gap that's fascinating because that's it's such a more

[00:57:30] nuanced take on the actual fundamentals of the company when you're not going to be the one

[00:57:34] who's going to go do the takeover somebody else may or may not be but you're thinking

[00:57:37] about what helps close this gap what are the true drivers of my returns and why and that's

[00:57:42] it's part of why toby's awesome he thinks about all that stuff and i think too and you

[00:57:46] guys also you did some some buffett stuff at the end too right oh that was really yeah i

[00:57:50] think the buffett thing was we sort of asked him like what what stands out to him in terms

[00:57:58] of what the biggest lesson investors can learn from buffett and i think matt am i is it kind

[00:58:04] of like surviving and being around and buffett being like the last sort of like almost like

[00:58:12] the conservative nature of buffett's view something like that am i getting that right

[00:58:17] what was the you remember i think it was just about survive right survivability don't do

[00:58:22] something that's going to take you down if you keep surviving and adapting then you can have

[00:58:27] your day in the sunlight eventually but you got to survive and then jack you and i jumped

[00:58:35] on with bob elliot of unlimited funds i would say for me probably the thing that jumped out

[00:58:42] and i don't know if this is like some big lesson but we you asked him about the gdp number

[00:58:48] because gdp came in lower than expected and he was just kind of like

[00:58:53] like i don't even really i don't think he pays attention to that number then he gave

[00:58:57] like a completely other number that shows like completely opposite like growth is still strong

[00:59:03] but as the way he looks at it it was just kind of like you know a lot of these guys

[00:59:07] look at these things you know you might see a number and it might the market and the headlines

[00:59:14] may make a big deal out of it because it's like something that's widely followed but

[00:59:18] you know a lot of times there's a lot of other facts and figures that

[00:59:22] might debunk that or maybe be like more important yeah this idea that like the economy

[00:59:29] is like this massive barge you know what he was talking about and it's it's funny because

[00:59:33] you know to to do well at twitter you have to be responding to all these numbers day to day

[00:59:37] up and down and left and right but his whole point was like you would be the most boring twitter

[00:59:41] account all time of all time if you actually just said the reality which is things change very

[00:59:45] very slowly so you know looking at one gdp print that's low or one inflation print this this or

[00:59:50] the other thing it doesn't change like the underlying thing that's going on the economy

[00:59:54] moves really really slowly so as much as and i think that's probably the biggest takeaway as

[00:59:58] much as it's great for headlines to sit here and look at every single thing and have these

[01:00:02] opinions on every single thing like move for the most part this is this slow moving thing

[01:00:06] that doesn't change a lot and you know getting that direction of that slow moving thing right

[01:00:10] is really the big the big thing here not necessarily reacting to the day-to-day stuff

[01:00:15] yeah he's definitely like a level-headed like macro guy like you know he like i asked him

[01:00:20] about debt too and like was he concerned about the level of debt and where that's going and

[01:00:24] he kind of was just dismissive of that and saying no i'm not really worried about it and

[01:00:28] you know the u.s is you know it's gonna take a lot lot more for the u.s not to be looked

[01:00:33] at as the reserve currency and yeah so anyways it was just he kind of brings a nice

[01:00:38] level-headedness i say to like the macro and he explains things in the way in a way people can

[01:00:42] understand you know more than there's very few people in the macro world that can do that

[01:00:46] like he explains it so simply that you can just understand like here here's what's going on

[01:00:50] this is what you need to know you don't need to worry about like all this noise floating on

[01:00:53] or floating around it okay let's kind of do rapid fire on these next ones because i think

[01:00:57] some of these might be a little bit more trading oriented anyway so mandy zoo you are

[01:01:01] on there with brent jack yeah yeah mandy was actually great um you know if you want to see

[01:01:06] someone like the deer in the headlights let look at me during this interview because we were uh

[01:01:10] we were talking about volatility disperse dispersion and skew and like as her and brent's

[01:01:14] is like an expert in this too and mandy's like incredibly smart like as they're talking about

[01:01:18] this i'm like thinking about i'm just sitting there and i'm thinking like how am i gonna

[01:01:20] ask a question about this like there's no chance that i can come up with an intelligent

[01:01:24] question about what they're talking about but i did ask her at the end i did get one thing

[01:01:27] and at the end and i wanted to ask her like about the rise in options activity and what

[01:01:30] like somebody like me who's sitting here as a long-term investor should think about

[01:01:34] the risks of the fact that they're all this options you know the use of options is way up so

[01:01:38] you can listen to it to hear her answer she was great um but it was not uh you know definitely

[01:01:42] not my area of expertise so and also i was many many hours into this thing at that point

[01:01:47] so i was just hoping like i didn't embarrass myself during that one and then you had cullen

[01:01:51] roach to talk uh were you talking about his economic or like macro or economic framework

[01:01:58] yeah we're talking about his macro dashboard which is really cool it's on the discipline

[01:02:01] fund site he's got a macro dashboard which is like all these charts that he pays the most

[01:02:05] attention to so it was again going back to corey's there was another one where i can

[01:02:08] thank cullen for the fact that i didn't have to do an interview outline but like the cool

[01:02:12] thing is like all those charts actually get at the major issues in the economy so by just

[01:02:17] working through those individual charts we were able to get you know cullen always called himself

[01:02:21] like pragmatic capitalism was his book and his vlog and you know we got a pragmatic take

[01:02:25] on all this stuff what's going on with inflation what's going on with the economy what the most

[01:02:28] important things to pay attention to yeah i really i really enjoyed that one i thought

[01:02:32] the dashboard was like a good jumping off point and then we had joseph wang which you

[01:02:35] and brent did and victor jones so um you were on the jaunce yeah joseph is i want to get uh

[01:02:41] i want to get joseph on excess returns um joseph is really really good he worked inside

[01:02:46] the fed so like it's a completely different take than than anybody else you would talk

[01:02:50] to because so we tried to get into like what are the major roles of the fed what is something you

[01:02:55] know somebody like me who never worked with the fed what are like the misconceptions your average

[01:02:59] investor would have about the fed like i want to do a half hour was not enough to do what we

[01:03:03] want to do with joseph so i'm hoping now that we're in touch with joseph we'll be able to

[01:03:06] get him on excess returns and do an hour with him because it just interests me so much

[01:03:10] there's so many people who have an opinion on what the fed should be doing um and by the

[01:03:14] way i'll cut this out but i don't have to stop exactly at 12 15 so we can go a little

[01:03:17] bit over um if we need to but uh anyway uh there's so many people have opinions on what the fed

[01:03:21] should be doing but a lot of it is not based in like how the fed actually works and what the

[01:03:25] fed actually pays attention to so i thought that was really cool from that perspective

[01:03:29] and then you guys closed it out and i thought it was great they did it because i don't know

[01:03:33] they're out in minneapolis this is doug clinton and jean munster from deep water

[01:03:37] i think doug is east coast and i think jean is okay well still i mean both of them were

[01:03:41] doing it you know well into the evening because this is that they did some 7 30 to 8

[01:03:45] eastern time and you know i'll let you talk about the things that they talked about from

[01:03:51] a technology perspective i just want to say what i thought was great and interesting was

[01:03:56] they actually had some diverging views on just different things and yet they're at the same

[01:04:02] firm they're partners with each other you know they obviously invest in deep water and

[01:04:05] they're kind of like these they're kind of the go-to guys with a lot of these you know

[01:04:10] technology companies and the innovations happening in different areas of the economy

[01:04:16] and i think doug and jean are both super intelligent super smart super articulate

[01:04:21] but i thought that healthy healthy sort of disagreement was kind of refreshing like

[01:04:26] in some way because it's like yeah these guys are working together but they don't

[01:04:30] necessarily seem to see eye to eye on everything but yeah here they are you know

[01:04:34] building a successful firm and and yeah so yeah i'm sure that makes them more successful

[01:04:39] if you want to see how to respectfully disagree like you should watch that episode because

[01:04:43] they were really great about that like they were open about the fact they have different

[01:04:46] opinions and they were able to like respectfully talk back and forth about why they did it was

[01:04:49] interesting like i had this whole outline of what we were going to do in that podcast and we

[01:04:53] didn't do any of it because it was so it was just so interesting like talking about this

[01:04:56] stuff we got into ai for a really long period of time like how they think it's

[01:05:00] going to change the world like some of the behind the scenes stuff in terms of how it works

[01:05:03] we got into the apple vision pro like neither one of them is all that excited about it i

[01:05:08] think gene is more excited than doug is about it but neither one of them like thinks it's a game

[01:05:12] changing thing but like when they had to rank what was really the coolest thing to me is when

[01:05:15] they had to rank ai like on a scale of i think one to a hundred in terms of like its world

[01:05:19] changing you know power with like electricity i think would be a hundred like doug had ai in

[01:05:25] 99 which was well above the internet so where was gene was that 40 right or something 90

[01:05:31] he was at 90 okay yeah yeah he was he was high but not that guy um but yeah it's just

[01:05:36] it's interesting to me like none of us have any idea how ai is going to change the world

[01:05:41] but when guys like this that are inside of it every day like see that kind of potential like

[01:05:46] i know what it's going to be and i had asked them like which was a dumb question i had asked

[01:05:50] them like well how is it going to change our lives in 10 years and then i kind of corrected

[01:05:53] myself later like really with the rate ai is changing i should have asked them like what how is

[01:05:57] it going to change our lives in 10 months um because it's moving so fast like who who knows

[01:06:01] what's going to happen in 10 years but it's just that is what struck me is like how optimistic they

[01:06:07] are and doug's more optimistic than gene but about how much this is this stuff is going to

[01:06:10] change the world so that was really cool it was a good change of pace by the way too

[01:06:13] after doing all this stuff all day like to just be able to like this was more of a

[01:06:16] conversation than anything else we did um or maybe like you know matt's with jim and someone

[01:06:21] one with perth were also great from that perspective too but like this was just we

[01:06:24] threw the outline out and we just talked about what's going on i thought bren's question about

[01:06:28] kids he kind of got that you know that kind of spurred some thought like how the kids today are

[01:06:36] utilizing technology and how that's changing you know the way like that these kids develop and

[01:06:43] just the the focus that kids have and you know all the different things that this technology

[01:06:49] is is doing and the way that these kids use the technology you know it's like you're gonna

[01:06:54] kids today are going to be using technology when they're adults completely differently than the way

[01:06:59] we use technology i mean kids these days are they have five different screens up they're

[01:07:03] multitasking yeah well like one of the things i thought was interesting is this idea that like

[01:07:07] you know we all grew up and i hated this so it's probably good for the kids now like

[01:07:10] we all grew up like you study this topic and then you write this paper about the topic like

[01:07:13] that's over um you know they they kind of mentioned this you know but ai can write these

[01:07:18] papers so well that that's not going to be part of like the educational system like there

[01:07:22] was you know there were like these ai's that defend against the other ai's so like

[01:07:26] the ai that could figure out that the ai wrote the paper but like that's kind of going away

[01:07:30] now i think that the ai that is you know that can write the paper smarter than the one that

[01:07:33] can defend against it it's just like the way we learn and the way you know if you want to

[01:07:37] learn about a topic i mean you're gonna be able to just type a prompt into a computer

[01:07:40] and you're gonna get like this summarized version of that whole topic i don't i don't know

[01:07:44] what it means but it's it's definitely gonna change the world in a lot of different ways

[01:07:48] well that's fascinating i i really want to hear this one now i didn't get to hear this one yet

[01:07:52] so i i will i am vowing i will be back i'm gonna put some time into this this weekend

[01:07:57] i know i have a couple of holes but i have at least 24 tracks here on these

[01:08:02] conveniently 26 lines of legal pad in front of me where i think i might have a song

[01:08:07] for each one of these people and i've got i've got some good ones in here right from

[01:08:12] islands in the stream with with mr constant all the way through uh you know maps with ben hunt and

[01:08:18] um you know maybe even 10 crack commandments for cullen roach we'll see what sticks and what falls

[01:08:23] off but i have thoughts all right that sounds good what we'll do is uh let's try to open

[01:08:28] up the next episode with our 24 track uh piano for a purpose double-sided

[01:08:35] this and yeah just so we mentioned at the end too like this this we will have the donation link on

[01:08:40] this episode um we're still running the fundraiser for susan g colman any episodes related to p&l

[01:08:45] for a purpose we'll maintain as part of the fundraiser so if you are able to give

[01:08:49] um if you're still listening to us after an hour 10 minutes if you're able to give

[01:08:52] there's a donate link list of the next to the video we would really appreciate it

[01:08:56] all right guys thank you for watching we'll see you next time hi guys this is justin again

[01:09:04] thanks so much for tuning into this episode you can follow jack on twitter at practical quant

[01:09:10] you can follow me on twitter at jj carbono and follow matt on twitter at cultish creative if

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[01:09:26] to cover in the future please email us at excess returns pod at gmail.com we would like

[01:09:31] this to be a listener-driven podcast and would appreciate any suggestions thank you